Russia's Budget Resilience
Russia's budgetary system remains stable in 2024 despite economic challenges and sanctions. The year-end budget deficit is expected to remain at 1.1% of GDP, although budget spending is planned to increase by 25% compared to 2023. The country's low government debt ratio (18.1% of GDP) and balanced budget strategy are seen as the cornerstones of economic stability. Russia's fiscal discipline has been ensured by economic reforms since the 1998 crisis, and resilience against economic turmoil has been ensured by channeling oil revenues into budget surpluses. The new budget rules envisage reducing dependence on oil prices and redirecting foreign exchange reserves to yuan and gold.
NGO Problem in Georgia
Georgian Deputy Justice Minister Tamar Tkeshelashvili announced that the number of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) applying for registration under the Law on Foreign Representatives is 469. Adopted on 14 May by the Georgian Parliament, the law provides for the registration of foreign-funded NGOs and media outlets. The law imposes a fine of 25,000 (approximately 836,000 rubles) on organizations that fail to register or submit an annual financial declaration. Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili vetoed the law, but the parliament overrode the veto and passed the law. While some European and US politicians opposed the law over concerns that it could restrict freedom of expression and hinder independent media, President Zurabishvili called it “unconstitutional and contrary to national interests”.
(Ведомости, “В Грузии 469 НКО подали заявки о регистрации по закону об иноагентах”, (02.09.2024))
Putin’s Visit to Mongolia and Its Historical Significance
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Mongolia for the first time since 2023, taking steps to strengthen the historical ties and strategic cooperation between the two nations. In the capital Ulaanbaatar, Putin met with President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh, highlighting the increase in trade volume between the two countries and emphasizing the importance of new agreements signed in the fields of energy and infrastructure. The discussion also covered Mongolia's commitment to independence, its multi-faceted foreign policy approach, and the role of the United Nations in international relations. Putin extended an invitation to Khurelsukh to attend the 2024 BRICS Summit and the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow in 2025.
Resignations of NATO Foreign Ministers Called For
Maria Zakharova, Head of the Information and Press Department at the Russian Foreign Ministry, stated that the foreign ministers of NATO member countries should follow the example of their counterparts in Ukraine and Sweden and resign. In a statement on her Telegram channel, Zakharova remarked, "Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström is stepping down. I hope this is in solidarity with his Ukrainian colleague. This ‘resignation wave’ should go viral in NATO countries as well." Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba resigned on September 4. According to Ukrainian Supreme Council member Oleksiy Goncharenko, potential candidates for the position include Deputy Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and former Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the European Union Mykola Tochytsky. On the evening of September 4, David Arakhamia, leader of the "Servant of the People" party, confirmed in a session attended by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that Andrii Sybiha could assume the ministerial role.
(Ведомости, “Захарова надеется на отставку министров иностранных дел стран НАТО”, (04.09.2024))
Deadlock in Negotiations with Hamas
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the Palestinian Hamas organization is not willing to agree to a ceasefire and is using hostages as leverage to force Israel into making concessions. In an interview with Fox News, Netanyahu mentioned that Hamas has refused any agreement regarding control of the Philadelphi Corridor or a prisoner-for-hostage exchange involving terrorist detainees. Netanyahu emphasized that, despite several proposals mediated by the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar, Hamas has blocked each one. He affirmed that the best way to safely recover the approximately 100 hostages is for Israel to maintain control over the Philadelphi Corridor. Netanyahu believes that Israel must control this corridor to prevent Hamas from smuggling weapons and rebuilding its military strength.
(Ведомости, “Нетаньяху заявил о зашедших в тупик переговорах с «Хамасом»”, (05.09.2024))
Russia Closely Monitors Editorial Policies of Foreign Media
Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia closely monitors the editorial policies of various foreign media outlets, noting that some of these outlets strive to maintain balance in their reporting. Peskov was asked about U.S. sanctions imposed on the media group "Rossiya Segodnya - Россия сегодня" and on Russia Today (RT) Editor-in-Chief Margarita Simonyan, as well as potential countermeasures. He responded, "It’s not possible to adopt a single approach; we are closely observing the policies of different foreign media organizations. While some attempt to maintain balance, particularly in their coverage of events related to Ukraine, others lack this sensitivity and spread biased and inaccurate information." On September 4, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Russian media projects such as "Rossiya Segodnya," RT, Sputnik, and Ruptly. Earlier, on June 12, the U.S. Treasury Department released a new sanctions list covering 33 individuals and over 200 entities from Russia, China, and Moldova.
On Sanctions Imposed on Russia
Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, stated that U.S. sanctions on Russia would not be lifted, even if Donald Trump were elected in the U.S. presidential election, and that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris would likewise not change this policy. In a statement on his Telegram channel, Medvedev expressed his view that these sanctions would persist indefinitely or until the U.S. faces "inevitable internal collapse into civil war." Medvedev described Trump as a pragmatic businessman but emphasized that he remains under the influence of the "deep state," while he characterized Harris as "inexperienced and inadequate." The U.S. presidential election is scheduled for November 5. After President Biden withdrew from the race, he endorsed Harris as the Democratic Party’s candidate. Russian President Vladimir Putin underscored that Russia should refrain from supporting any candidate in this election, emphasizing that the decision is up to the American people.
(Ведомости, “Медведев: санкции против России будут действовать «до распада» США”, (07.09.2024))
India's National Security Advisor to Visit Russia
India's National Security Advisor Ajit Doval is scheduled to visit Russia on September 10-11. According to India Today, Doval plans to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during the visit to discuss potential solutions to the conflict in Ukraine. Doval will also participate in the BRICS meeting as part of his visit. In a discussion on August 27, Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reviewed the situation in Ukraine and Modi's recent visit to Kyiv. Modi expressed India’s willingness to contribute to resolving the conflict through political and diplomatic means, while Putin criticized the "destructive stance" of the Kyiv government and its Western supporters. During his August 23 visit to Kyiv, Modi met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, emphasizing that the conflict can only be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy and reaffirming India’s commitment to supporting peace efforts.
U.S. Congress to Consider Various Bills Targeting China
The U.S. Congress is set to review a series of bills from September 9-15 aimed at limiting the influence of the People's Republic of China across military, technological, and educational sectors. In the technology domain, proposals include denying tax exemptions for electric vehicles that source parts from China and restricting Chinese company DJI Technologies' access to the American drone market. Additionally, there is a call to prohibit federal-funded U.S. institutions from collaborating with five China-linked biotechnology firms. The bills also seek to enhance measures against economic espionage and revamp academic ties between the two countries. For example, American educational institutions affiliated with China's Confucius Institute, a cultural influence initiative, would face funding restrictions. Congress also advocates for measures to counter the Chinese threat to Taiwan and proposes scrutinizing the financial assets of Chinese officials. These bipartisan bills reflect a long-term consensus on countering China in U.S.-China relations and emphasize national security—a message resonating with Congress members as the upcoming elections approach.
(Ведомости, “В конгрессе США рассмотрят несколько антикитайских законопроектов”, (09.09.2024))
Ukraine’s Request for Used Military Equipment from Australia
Ukraine’s new Foreign Minister, Andrii Sybiha, has requested unused military equipment from Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong. In a statement on the social media platform X, Sybiha noted that equipment like Australia’s large stock of used armored vehicles would boost Ukraine’s defense capabilities while allowing Australia to save resources. Although Australia is not a NATO member, it supports the alliance’s policy on Ukraine. In fact, the country attended the NATO summit held in Washington from July 9-11 at the invitation of former NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. Additionally, in July, the Australian Defense Force provided a military aid package worth 250 million Australian dollars (approximately 169 million USD) to Ukraine, which included air defense missiles, air-to-ground weapons, anti-tank systems, artillery, mortar, and light weapon ammunition. During the same period, Sweden, Australia, Denmark, Estonia, Canada, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, the United Kingdom, and Germany signed a multilateral agreement to support Ukraine with drones, with Latvia and the United Kingdom leading the coalition.
(Ведомости, “Украина попросила Австралию передать списанную военную технику”, (10.09.2024))
Erdoğan Emphasizes the Need for Crimea’s Return to Ukraine
In a video message sent to the Fourth Crimea Platform Leaders’ Summit, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan expressed support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity, stating that Crimea must be returned to Ukraine. According to TRT Haber, Erdoğan emphasized that Turkey’s support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence remains unchanged. He asserted that the return of Crimea to Ukraine is a requirement under international law and highlighted that the security and well-being of the Crimean Tatars, one of Crimea’s indigenous peoples, is a priority in Turkey’s foreign policy. Concluding his speech, Erdoğan expressed hope for a fair and lasting peace that respects Ukraine’s territorial integrity, sovereignty, and independence to end the conflict. Meanwhile, in a press conference on September 11, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that no Russian territory would be subject to negotiation, adding that any peace agreement regarding Ukraine should prioritize Russia’s security.
(Ведомости, “Эрдоган заявил о необходимости вернуть Крым в состав Украины”, (11.09.2024))
International Talks Held in St. Petersburg
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, and Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Ali Akbar Ahmadian at the Konstantinovsky Palace in St. Petersburg. The discussions focused on security cooperation with BRICS countries, resolving the conflict in Ukraine, and strategic partnerships. Putin extended invitations to Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Iranian President to attend the upcoming BRICS summit, while Doval conveyed India’s proposal for a peaceful resolution in Ukraine. The meetings also underscored the mutual commitment to strengthening cooperation between Russia and Iran.
(Ведомости, “Владимир Путин провел в Санкт-Петербурге международные переговоры”, (12.09.2024))
U.S., U.K., and Canada Launch Joint Campaign
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken accused Russia Today (RT) of interfering in other countries’ internal affairs through covert operations and engaging in "military supplies." Blinken claimed that RT is actively involved in activities aimed at undermining U.S. elections and democracy, functioning as a "proxy" for Russian intelligence. He announced that the U.S., U.K., and Canada have launched a diplomatic campaign to counter the "threat" posed by RT, adding that RT is "secretly managing" information platforms in various countries—a practice that should be viewed as intelligence activity. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a general license requiring financial transactions with RT and Russia Today media group to be terminated by November 13. RT’s Editor-in-Chief Margarita Simonyan responded to Blinken’s accusations via Telegram, stating that U.S. intelligence fails to understand that these activities are conducted "openly."
Russia’s Justifications for Nuclear Weapon Use
Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, stated that Russia has "official justifications" for the use of nuclear weapons but has shown restraint, emphasizing that this patience has its limits. Responding to Western politicians’ claims that Russia’s nuclear threats are mere rhetoric without action, Medvedev acknowledged that Moscow does not desire a nuclear conflict, as it would have "extremely severe and dire consequences." He noted that Russia has been patient, but warned that if patience runs out, responses could also be delivered with new non-nuclear means. Since the onset of the conflict in Ukraine, Russia has frequently stated that nuclear weapon use could theoretically be possible if its territorial integrity or national existence is threatened. President Vladimir Putin has highlighted that the West has lowered the nuclear threshold, suggesting possible revisions to Russia’s nuclear doctrine.
New Approaches to Migration Policies in the State Duma
The Russian Federation State Duma is planning to address critical issues regarding migration policies in its fall session, with discussions expected to include Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova and Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev. The lower house council will review this year’s “Question Time” schedule on September 16, with approval anticipated in the general assembly on September 17. The plan outlines five sessions, starting on October 2, focused on various social, economic, and migration policies. The first session will cover holiday and health programs for children, while on October 23, discussions will focus on improving housing infrastructure and service quality. Migration policy practices will be detailed on November 13, with Golikova and Kolokoltsev participating. Upcoming sessions will also tackle issues such as vocational training, workforce provision in the production sector, and import substitution programs.
Question Time is a parliamentary session during which members pose questions that ministers are obliged to answer.
(Ведомости, “Госдума хочет обсудить вопросы миграции с Голиковой и Колокольцевым”, (15.09.2024))
Protests Held in Georgia
Following a statement by Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder of Georgia’s ruling party “Georgian Dream – Democratic Georgia,” suggesting that Georgia should apologize to South Ossetia for the 2008 Georgia-South Ossetia conflict, over 100 people gathered for a protest in front of the parliament in Tbilisi. The demonstration on the evening of September 15 was also supported in Kutaisi and Batumi. Protesters labeled Ivanishvili a “traitor.” Ivanishvili stated that Georgia should have the courage to apologize for past events, placing blame on former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and his party, “United National Movement,” and asserting that those responsible for the 2008 events would be brought to justice. On August 8, 2008, Georgia attacked Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia, in an attempt to take control of the region.
Shoigu Meets with Iranian President in Iran
Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu traveled to Iran to meet with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian. According to IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting), Shoigu delivered a message from Russian President Vladimir Putin and provided a report on recent agreements. During the meeting, it was emphasized that Iran continues to support policies related to Azerbaijan's corridor and transportation routes. On September 16, Shoigu also met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus, where they discussed strengthening bilateral relations and regional security issues.
(Ведомости, “Шойгу встретился с президентом Ирана”, (17.09.2024))
Two New NATO Headquarters Planned in Finland
According to Yle, two NATO headquarters are set to be established in southern and northern Finland. The first will be located in Mikkeli as the Northern European headquarters for ground forces, while the second, serving as an advanced ground forces headquarters, will be situated in either Rovaniemi or Sodankylä. During a visit to Tampere, Finnish President Alexander Stubb emphasized that the locations for the NATO headquarters were chosen based on military requirements, with no influence from regional political considerations. Stubb also noted that a final decision has yet to be made. On September 16, Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen announced that NATO’s ground forces in Finland would be led by Sweden. In April, Iltalehti reported, citing sources in Finnish foreign affairs and security policy, that a NATO headquarters would be established in Mikkeli. Norwegian Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram confirmed that Norway’s defense command had recommended this move. Finland became NATO’s 31st member in April 2023. Following Finland’s accession, the Russian Foreign Ministry warned of increased conflict risks with NATO, and Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed that joining NATO could present certain challenges for Helsinki.
(Ведомости, “Yle: в Финляндии на юге и севере появятся два штаба НАТО”, (18.09.2024))
Harris and Trump Expected to Meet with Zelensky by Late September
According to CNN sources, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump plan to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky by the end of September. White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby mentioned that Harris could take advantage of this opportunity, noting that she has previously met with Zelensky. Bloomberg reports that Zelensky is expected to request support for Ukraine's NATO and EU membership and advanced weaponry during the meeting. When asked about the meeting, Trump responded positively with “Probably, yes” but provided no further details. In discussions, Harris criticized Trump’s stance on Ukraine, describing it as “abandoning positions,” and referred to Russian President Vladimir Putin as a “dictator who could easily outmaneuver Trump.”
(Ведомости, “Харрис и Трамп могут встретиться с Зеленским до конца сентября”, (19.09.2024))
Hungary and the Netherlands Aim to Exit the EU Migration and Asylum Pact
Hungary plans to join the Netherlands in seeking to exit the European Union Migration and Asylum Pact. Hungary’s Minister for EU Affairs, Janos Boka, expressed support for the Netherlands’ request, emphasizing the need for decisive steps to address migration. However, changes to EU treaties require unanimous approval from all member states, making this a lengthy and complex process, and such modifications are not expected in the near future. The Netherlands submitted its request to the European Commission on September 18, citing its unwillingness to comply with EU migration rules. According to Politico, the Netherlands envisions anti-migration measures such as limiting family reunifications and strengthening border controls. Migration experts clarify that these measures do not constitute a full exit from EU norms but rather seek greater flexibility within existing regulations.
(Ведомости, “Венгрия и Нидерланды хотят выйти из миграционного пакта Евросоюза”, (20.09.2024))
Russia Refuses to Participate in “Peace Summits”
Maria Zakharova, Head of the Information and Press Department at the Russian Foreign Ministry, announced that Russia will not attend the upcoming "Peace Summits" in Switzerland. Zakharova stated that these summits have no genuine connection to peace efforts, describing them as “another deception by the Anglo-Saxons and their Ukrainian puppets.” She added, “The so-called second summit aims to impose Zelensky's completely unrealistic peace formula as the only solution.” However, Zakharova emphasized that Moscow does not reject diplomatic solutions and remains open to serious proposals that take into account the situation on the ground and new geopolitical realities. On June 14, President Vladimir Putin indicated that peace talks could begin if Ukraine accepted certain conditions, a proposal that Ukraine declined. Most recently, on September 5, Putin affirmed that Russia is always open to negotiations based on documents agreed upon in Istanbul.
(Ведомости, “Захарова: Россия не будет участвовать в «саммитах мира»”, (21.09.2024))
France’s New Government Offers No Guarantee of Ending the Crisis
The new cabinet announced by French Prime Minister Michel Barnier on September 21 has been described by Politico as the most right-wing government of the past decade. Barnier formed this cabinet through intensive negotiations between President Emmanuel Macron’s supporters and the center-right Republicans. Key figures from Macron’s party, such as Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu and Minister of Economy, Finance, and Industrial and Digital Sovereignty Antoine Armand, retained their posts, while Republicans’ Patrick Hetzel became Minister of Higher Education, Research, and Innovation, and Bruno Retailleau was appointed as Interior Minister. Retailleau’s conservative stance, especially on immigration and radical Islam, has drawn attention. The left-wing opposition alliance, the New People’s Front (NFP), plans to call for a confidence vote on October 1, though they are unlikely to secure a majority in parliament. According to Le Journal du Dimanche, citing an Ifop poll, Macron’s approval rating has fallen to 25%. Analysts note that the Barnier government will face tough challenges such as the budget deficit and pension reform, with the potential for both left and far-right opposition to put the government under significant pressure.
(Ведомости, “Почему новое правительство Франции не дает гарантий окончания кризиса”, (22.09.2024))
The West Halves Ukraine’s Budget Funding
Western countries have significantly reduced their financial support for Ukraine’s budget, cutting it by half in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous year. Budget contributions dropped from 50% in 2023 to 27% in 2024, with the total aid amount falling from $19.1 billion to $10.6 billion. Unconditional foreign aid, in particular, decreased sharply from $6.1 billion to $1 billion, a six-fold reduction. While Kyiv aimed for a total of $37 billion in external funds for the year, it has only received a quarter of that target. With rising debt servicing costs increasing the burden on the budget, experts note that Ukraine is struggling financially, even though it has not formally declared insolvency.
(Ведомости, “Запад в 2 раза сократил финансирование бюджета Украины”, (23.09.2024))
Iran Calls on the U.S. for “Nuclear Agreement” Talks
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Araghchi expressed Iran’s desire to initiate talks on a “nuclear agreement” with the U.S. and other countries, stating that they are ready to discuss this matter at the UN General Assembly on September 24. However, Araghchi noted that the current international climate complicates the resumption of these negotiations. He highlighted the challenges of reviving the agreement in its original form, given the U.S.'s unilateral withdrawal from the deal in the past and the development of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, with the agreement set to expire in 2025. Analysts predict that significant progress in negotiations may only be possible after the U.S. presidential election.
The Kremlin has described Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine as a warning to Western countries. Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that this new doctrine signals the consequences that would arise if the West participates in an attack on Russia. Peskov noted that the adjustments in nuclear deterrence were made considering current border tensions. Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized that any attack against Russia, backed by a nuclear power, would be treated as a nuclear assault.
(Ведомости, “Как в мире отреагировали на обновление ядерной доктрины России”, (26.09.2024))
Japan's New Liberal Democratic Party Leader: Shigeru Ishiba
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has elected 63-year-old Shigeru Ishiba as its new leader. Ishiba, who has held various government roles over the years, will assume the role of Prime Minister upon parliamentary approval on October 1. This leadership change follows the resignation of current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who stepped down amid scandals and declining public support for the party. As the new leader, Ishiba aims to restore the party’s reputation and is known for his past roles as Defense Minister and his firm stance on foreign policy. A supporter of Japan's record-high defense budget, Ishiba is expected to advocate for a defense alliance similar to an “Asian NATO,” aiming to strengthen strategic balance against China and North Korea.
(Ведомости, “Кого избрали лидером правящей партии Японии на смену Фумио Кисиде”, (27.09.2024))
Elections in Austria
In Austria's parliamentary elections, the right-wing populist Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) emerged as the leading party for the first time. According to data from ORF, Austria’s national public broadcaster, the Freedom Party received 29.1% of the vote, surpassing the ruling Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) by a margin of 3%. The ÖVP secured 26.2% of the vote, placing second, while the Social Democrats came third with 20.4%. The coalition partner Greens – The Green Alternative received 8.6%, and the liberal NEOS party 8.8%. However, experts highlight that the Freedom Party’s chances of forming a government are slim. Austrian Chancellor and People’s Party leader Karl Nehammer has voiced opposition to a coalition with the Freedom Party, and the Social Democrats, Greens, and NEOS are ideologically distant from such an alliance. The Freedom Party's anti-immigration policies and calls to halt aid to Ukraine could lead to stricter immigration measures in Austria.
(Ведомости, “Правопопулисты впервые в истории побеждают на парламентских выборах в Австрии”, (29.09.2024))