Attack on Power Station in Ukraine
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced a series of strikes with long-range air and sea-based high-precision weapons against Ukrainian power plants. The strikes were reportedly aimed at Ukrainian military-industrial complexes and Western arms depots and arsenals. It was also emphasized that these strikes were carried out in response to Kiev's attempts to damage Russian energy and transport infrastructure. In addition, the Defense Ministry reported that 62 drones, 14 HIMARS multi-barrel rocket launchers and three Hammer guided bombs were shot down by air defense systems in the last 24 hours. The Russian Armed Forces repelled five counterattacks by brigades of the Ukrainian National Guard and the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the settlements of Vovchans'k and Starytsya in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine. In addition, at least two hydroelectric power plants of Ukraine's main hydropower generation company “Ukrhydroenergo” were reportedly attacked and critically damaged. On the other hand, over the last month, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has reported progress in the Kharkiv Oblast region. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on May 17 that there were no plans to occupy the region and that the fighting in the region was aimed at ensuring Russian border security.
Former Iranian President Ahmadinejad to Run Again
Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has filed his candidacy for the upcoming presidential elections in Iran. After it was announced that the elections would be held at the end of June due to the death of Iranian President Ibrahim Reisi, Ahmadinejad announced his candidacy on June 2, pledging that if elected, he would “engage constructively with the world and improve economic relations with all countries”. On the other hand, Ahmadinejad tried to run in 2021 but was blocked by the authorities. Iranian President Ibrahim Reisi was killed on May 19 when his helicopter made a hard landing near the border with Azerbaijan. Along with Reisi, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, other senior officials and crew members were also killed in the crash. Accordingly, Iran's Constitutional Protection Council voted on May 21 to hold early presidential elections on June 28. Presidential candidates applied for candidacy independently and their applications will be evaluated by the Constitutional Protection Council. As of June 1, 12 candidates have officially filed for candidacy. They include Masoud Pezeshkian, a member of the Islamic Consultative Assembly of Iran, Ahmad Rasoulinejad, a member of parliament, and Vahid Haganian, a member of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's administration.
Right-wing Ministers Threaten to Dismantle Coalition Government
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Public Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, representing far-right parties in Israel, threatened to quit the government if Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu accepts US President Joe Biden's proposed ceasefire plan for Gaza. “I just spoke to the prime minister and made it clear to him that I will not be part of the government if he accepts the proposed plan to end the war without the destruction of Hamas and the release of all hostages,” Smotrich said on social media. Ben-Gvir made a similar statement. The three-stage plan announced by Biden on May 31 includes a six-week ceasefire, an Israeli army withdrawal, the release of hostages, the delivery of humanitarian aid and negotiations for a permanent ceasefire. In this context, Netanyahu's office declared that “Israel will not stop the war until Hamas is completely destroyed”. While countries such as Egypt, Qatar and the United States have urged the parties to accept the plan, experts predict that the Israeli government will not accept it and the fighting will continue. Indeed, it is stated that Biden's initiative aims to increase voter support ahead of the US presidential elections, and it is argued that Washington will not impose serious sanctions against Israel.
Russia Supports Afghanistan's SCO Membership
Moscow has announced that it will support Afghanistan's full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This support will be given after the Taliban is removed from the list of banned organizations. Zamir Kabulov, Director of the Second Asia Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, said that the SCO is first and foremost an economic organization, and in this context, Afghanistan should put its economic situation in order and other members should approve its membership. Today, Afghanistan has the status of a United Nations General Assembly observer in the SCO. However, since no country recognizes the Taliban regime, representatives of the organization cannot attend the meetings. On the other hand, the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation proposed to Vladimir Putin on 27 May to remove the Taliban from the list of banned organizations. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the Taliban now control all of Afghanistan and that Moscow would build relations taking into account these realities. In addition, on 3 June, Kazakhstan also removed the Taliban from the list of terrorist organizations.
Russia to create a new federal district from Crimea and new regions
At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), the Governor of Zaporizhia Oblast, Yevgeni Balitsky, announced the creation of a federal region in Russia that will include Crimea and four new regions. These regions will be the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics, Zaporizhia Oblast and Kherson Oblast. Balitsky stated that a federal district consisting of these four new regions could be created on September 30, 2022, and on the same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin and the leaders of these regions signed agreements on their accession to Russia. Putin also emphasized that the people living in these regions would be “citizens of the Russian Federation forever”. As a matter of fact, Russia's special operation in Ukraine started on February 24, 2022, and as a result of this operation, most of the regions of the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics, Zaporizhia Oblast and Kherson Oblast were taken under control and these regions joined Russia as a result of the referendums held. However, Ukraine does not recognize the results of these referendums and the status of Crimea.
2024 European Parliament Elections
The European Parliament elections in the European Union (EU) member states started on June 6 and will continue until June 9. The results of these elections will determine the composition of the EU's main legislative body and will influence the Union's domestic and foreign policy until 2029. In the 2024 elections, 720 seats will be allocated; in 2019, 750 seats were allocated, as the UK was still a member of the EU then. On the other hand, representatives from around 200 parties will participate in the elections. Dutch citizens will start voting on June 6 and Irish citizens on June 7. On June 8, Latvia, Slovakia and Malta will vote, while the main polling day will take place on June 9. Each country will have a minimum of 6 and a maximum of 96 MEPs in the European Parliament, depending on its population. The highest number of MEPs is from Germany and the lowest number is from Cyprus, Luxembourg and Malta. Furthermore, the MEPs will be distributed among the factions of the parties participating in the elections. After the parliamentary elections, the new President of the European Council of Heads of State and Government is elected. This person is elected by the EU leaders by qualified majority. In September, the President of the European Commission will be elected.
Biden and Macron Discuss Use of Frozen Russian Assets
US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron have reached an agreement to use the proceeds from frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine. The agreement was reached during a meeting in Paris after the 80th anniversary of the “Normandy landings”. The two leaders issued a joint “roadmap”, in which they declared their unity in support of Ukraine and their opposition to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Indeed, it was agreed that 90% of this revenue, about €3 billion this year, would be directed to the Ukrainian army. It was also noted that frozen Russian assets could bring in around €5 billion a year. It is planned to use 90% of this income for Ukraine's military needs through the European Peace Facility (EPF) and the remaining 10% to support Kiev in other ways. On the other hand, the Kremlin characterizes the freezing of Russian assets as theft and a violation of international law. Moreover, the head of the Information and Press Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, warned of retaliation if the assets were taken. On April 28, Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said that the West would not only face retaliation from Moscow if Russian assets were taken, but would also lose the trust of foreign investors.
BRICS Foreign Ministers Advocate Diplomatic Resolution of the Conflict in Ukraine
BRICS Foreign Ministers offered mediation, arguing that the conflict in Ukraine should be resolved through diplomatic means. In a joint statement issued by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, the ministers reiterated their national positions on Ukraine, including to the United Nations Security Council and the General Assembly, and welcomed their offer of mediation through negotiations and diplomacy towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict. A similar statement was made at the 15th BRICS Summit in South Africa in August 2023, where African leaders welcomed mediation proposals such as a peace mission. It was also announced that more than 100 countries and 75 heads of state have confirmed their participation in the Ukraine peace conference to be held in Switzerland on June 15-16, but China, Mexico, Nicaragua and some other countries refused to participate, while Russia was not invited. The head of the Information and Press Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, said that the planned conference had nothing to do with peace.
Baltic States Leave the Russian Energy System
On February 9, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania announced that Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will leave the common energy system - the electricity ring (БРЭЛЛ) - and join the energy network of the European continent. This process took nearly 20 years to complete, i.e. to de-synchronize. Estonian Climate Minister Jaanus Uiga said that the Baltic countries have completed the necessary preparations for this transition. The Baltic states have been exposed to an energy crisis due to Western sanctions against Russia following the special operation in Ukraine and have long stopped buying electricity from Russia. Energy experts, on the other hand, noted that the necessary connections and stabilizing devices are being built so that the Baltic countries' energy systems can operate independently. On the other hand, it is emphasized that it could be economically disadvantageous for the Baltic states to sever energy ties with Russia and Belarus, as they would now have to pay for balancing services to Poland and other EU countries. Nevertheless, no significant negative impact is expected for Russia and Belarus.
Armenia Exits the Collective Security Treaty Organization
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced on 12 June that his country will leave the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), although no exact date has yet been specified. Armenia has frozen its membership in the CSTO since February. Pashinyan stated that Armenia is on its way to becoming a sovereign, peaceful and demarcated state and that joining the CSTO was a mistake, as this alliance threatens Armenia's security. At the end of May, Pashinyan claimed that two CSTO countries had assisted Azerbaijan during the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, and in an interview with France in February, he stated that the CSTO was not fulfilling its functions towards Armenia and that membership was “de facto frozen”. These statements coincided with the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Karabakh. Armenia has criticized the organization, stating that it has not received support from the CSTO in the border conflicts that have been ongoing since 2021. Experts emphasize that Pashinyan's statements are aimed at Western elites and that Armenia aims to establish closer relations with France and the United States. However, some experts argue that Moscow and other CSTO members are still important for Armenia and that the benefits of Armenia's pivot towards the West will be limited.
Iran and Azerbaijan hold joint military exercises
Iran and Azerbaijan are holding joint military exercises for the first time. Starting on June 12 in Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, these exercises will involve special teams, military equipment and technologies, aircrafts and drones. The Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Azerbaijan announced that the exercises will also be held in Iran. It is also stated that these exercises aim to increase the military skills of officers and improve inter-unit coordination. These developments come after a period when the two countries accused each other of hostility. Indeed, in September 2021, Azerbaijan arrested two Iranian truck drivers for illegally transporting cargo to Karabakh, which increased tensions between the two countries. Iran also accused Azerbaijan of military cooperation with Israel and threatened to attack Israeli military bases in Azerbaijan. In January 2023, an armed attack on the Azerbaijani Embassy in Tehran left one diplomatic official dead and Azerbaijan withdrew all its diplomats. However, after this incident, relations slowly began to normalize and in October 2023, it was agreed to hold joint military exercises in the Caspian Sea. Experts believe that these exercises are part of Iran's efforts to benefit from Azerbaijan's military experience. Indeed, Iran's last major war experience was in the Iran-Iraq War between 1980 and 1988. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, is notable for its experience from the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020. Nevertheless, Baku seeks to strengthen its relations with Iran due to the geopolitical instability in the region.
Remote Electronic Voting to be Implemented in 25 Regions for September Elections
Russia's Central Election Commission (CEC) has announced that remote electronic voting on the federal platform will take place in 25 regions in the September elections. In Moscow, this voting will take place on the regional platform. Remote electronic voting on the federal platform will be implemented in the Altai Republic, Mari El Republic, Vologda, Kaliningrad, Kursk, Lipetsk, Murmansk, Chelyabinsk regions and the city of Sevastopol. It will also be applied in certain elections in 16 regions, including the Republic of Karelia, the Republic of Chechnya, the Republic of Chuvashia, Altai Krai, Kamchatka Peninsula, Moscow, Sverdlovsk Oblast and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug. Remote voting will also be available in the Komi Republic, Perm Krai, Arhangelsk, Kostroma, Pskov, Smolensk, Tomsk and Yaroslavl regions. In Moscow, remote electronic voting will take place on a regional platform, and this year's election day will be held on September 8. In the country, more than 4,000 election campaigns are planned in 83 regions, in 20 regions governors will be elected, and in Moscow the election of members of the Moscow City Duma will take place. According to experts, the number of regions where remote electronic voting will be implemented shows that the CEC continues its strategy of digitalizing the electoral process. The selection of new districts is carried out to test the readiness of residents, infrastructure and members of the election commission for electronic voting. It is also highlighted that remote electronic voting continues to expand as part of efforts to digitize the electoral process in Russia.
Putin's Ceasefire Conditions for Ukraine and Their Feasibility
On June 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed several conditions for a ceasefire with Ukraine during a meeting with the Russian Foreign Ministry. The conditions include: first, the withdrawal of Ukrainian Armed Forces beyond the administrative borders of Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions; second, an official renouncement of Kyiv's goal to join NATO; and lastly, the complete lifting of Western sanctions. Putin stated that Russia would be ready for an immediate ceasefire once these conditions are met. However, the feasibility of these conditions is questionable. The withdrawal of Ukrainian Armed Forces and the recognition of new borders seem unacceptable to Ukraine and the West, as it is viewed as an attempt by Russia to legitimize its control over the territories internationally. Abandoning the goal of NATO membership, which is enshrined in the Ukrainian Constitution, would require significant constitutional changes and pose substantial challenges domestically and in relations with the West. The lifting of sanctions appears unlikely without resolving the situation in Ukraine, as the sanctions are intended to pressure Russia to end its military operations. Meanwhile, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated that Russia has no right to impose conditions on Ukraine and should withdraw its troops, a sentiment echoed by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. Consequently, Putin's conditions are unlikely to be accepted, and the current conflict is expected to persist. Despite this, as the West continues to support Ukraine, Russia is also bolstering its military and diplomatic positions.
Participants and Statuses of the Ukraine "Peace Summit" in Switzerland
On June 15, 92 countries and various organizations attended the Ukraine peace summit held in Switzerland. In addition to NATO and EU countries, representatives from the global South, such as India, were also present at the summit. High-profile figures like French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, US Vice President Kamala Harris, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attended the summit. While Russia was not invited, China decided not to participate. However, only three points of Vladimir Zelensky's 10-point peace plan, presented in November 2022, were discussed, and territorial issues were not addressed. Experts noted that countries from the global South tried to remain neutral, and their participation was symbolic. It was suggested that China did not attend because it wanted to organize its own peace process, and Armenia was reportedly taking steps to sever ties with Russia. Meanwhile, Georgia is working to improve its relations with the West. Western countries were the main supporters of the summit, and the US's lower level of representation was seen as a reflection of the summit's perceived lack of success. (Ведомости, “Кто и в каком статусе участвует в «саммите мира» по Украине в Швейцарии”, (16.06.2024))
2024 Ukraine Peace Summit
The first peace summit aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine was held on June 15-16 in the town of Bürgenstock, Switzerland. Representatives from 90 countries and eight international organizations attended the summit. While the leading Western countries sent their leaders, there was a lack of representation from other regions. Russia was not invited, and China refused to participate for this reason. On the second day of the summit, discussions centered on nuclear and food security and the humanitarian aspects of the conflict. The final declaration called for the control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to be returned to Kyiv, stressed the necessity of dialogue and participation in achieving peace, deemed the threat of nuclear weapons unacceptable, emphasized the importance of safe maritime trade, called for prisoner exchanges, and the return of civilians. Saudi Arabia is seen as the most likely candidate to host the next summit, while many countries want to see Russian representatives present. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan highlighted thatPutin has taken a positive approach to ceasefire conditions, marking a significant step forward. Although the summit was successful in promoting Ukraine's efforts, advancing the peace process without the participation of Moscow and Beijing seems challenging. Global South countries showed a neutral stance towards the conflict, indicating their openness to proposals from both sides.
Vladimir Putin's Visit to Vietnam
Russian President Vladimir Putin paid an official visit to Vietnam on June 19-20. In Hanoi, Putin met with Vietnamese President To Lam at the Presidential Palace, where they held a formal welcoming ceremony followed by inter-delegation talks and a press conference. To Lam expressed his pleasure in welcoming Putin and the Russian delegation, noting that the invitation for Putin to visit Vietnam was extended by General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Nguyễn Phú Trọng. The Vietnamese President congratulated Russia on its achievements over the past twenty years and highlighted its strengthened position on the international stage. Putin congratulated To Lam on his re-election and mentioned the celebration of the 30th anniversary of the friendship treaty between the two countries, noting that the trade volume between the two nations increased by 8% last year. He emphasized the importance of Russia's relationship with ASEAN and invited To Lam to the 80th Victory Day celebrations in Moscow in 2025, thanking the Vietnamese people for their warm reception. As a result of the meetings, a joint declaration on deepening the comprehensive strategic partnership between Russia and Vietnam was signed, along with 15 agreements on various topics such as cooperation between Novatek and Petrovietnam and tax policy. Putin also held discussions with Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, General Secretary of the Communist Party Nguyen Phu Trong, and Chairman of the National Assembly Tran Thanh Man. Following his visits to North Korea and Vietnam, Putin held a press conference.
Strategic Partnership Agreement Between Putin and Kim
Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean National Leader Kim Jong-Un signed a comprehensive 23-article strategic partnership agreement aimed at establishing global strategic stability and a just international order. This agreement includes provisions for mutual military and other support in the event of an attack, a commitment not to enter into agreements with third parties, and a pledge not to use their territories against each other. Additionally, the agreement aims to promote cooperation in the fields of space, biology, peaceful nuclear energy, artificial intelligence, and information technologies, while also enhancing economic cooperation and expanding trade volumes. The agreement also includes commitments to enhance defense capabilities and organize joint activities to prevent war. Despite this, Russia emphasizes that the agreement is defensive in nature and does not target third countries.
(Ведомости, “О чем договорились Путин и Ким”, (21.06.2024))
MGM-140 ATACMS Missile Attack on Sevastopol
The Armed Forces of Ukraine conducted an attack on the city of Sevastopol in southwestern Crimea using American-made ATACMS missiles. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the attack resulted in the deaths of four people, including two children, and injured approximately 150 others. The Governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhayev, reported that among the deceased was a nine-year-old girl. Many civilians, especially children, were injured by fragments that fell in the city during the attack. Following the incident, Russia launched a terrorism investigation and claimed that Ukraine carried out this attack on the day of the Orthodox holiday "Pentecost." Due to this incident, June 24 was declared a day of mourning in Crimea and Sevastopol.
The EU Adopts 14th Sanctions Package Against Russia
The European Union (EU) has adopted its 14th sanctions package against Russia, targeting the energy, finance, and trade sectors. This package imposes restrictive measures on 116 individuals and entities. The EU aims to reduce Russia's revenue by limiting the transit of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) through European ports. Additionally, the EU has banned investments in LNG projects, deliveries of goods, and technological services. It emphasized that companies must not use their subsidiaries in third countries to circumvent sanctions against Russia. Transactions via Russia's Financial Message Transfer System (SPFS) are also prohibited. Control mechanisms for assessing risks in arms trade have been made mandatory, and funding for political parties, foundations, and media organizations linked to Russia is banned. The EU has taken measures to block Russia's access to key points of its special military operations, adding 61 new entities to the sanctions list. These entities will face export restrictions on dual-use materials and technologies. Some of these entities are based in China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. While the EU does not directly sanction the supply of pipeline or liquefied gas from Russia, it intends to phase it out by 2027. Experts predict that the new sanctions will not have a significant impact on Russia's oil and gas exports; the ban on LNG transit may incur additional costs but is not expected to greatly affect overall exports. More comprehensive LNG bans are being carefully considered to avoid increasing gas prices within the EU. Additionally, the cancellation of long-term contracts for LNG transit by Sweden and Finland may lead to Russian companies filing lawsuits in international arbitration courts.
Members of Parliament and Senators of the Russian Federation Will Be Stripped of Their Status If They Leave the Country Without Permission
Members of the State Duma and Senators of the Russian Federation will lose their status if they travel abroad without the approval of the federal parliament administration. The State Duma of Russia is working on this legislative change and has stated that members and senators will be dismissed in case of violations. This regulation has emerged parallel to the law amendment issued in July 2023, which grants the authority to restrict the foreign travel of members and senators who possess confidential information. Currently, members of the State Duma must inform the administration of their foreign travels, and travel permits are approved by the Federation Council. Leaving the country without permission will be a reason for dismissal and is included among existing causes of status loss, such as engaging in commercial activities, joining the management bodies of non-profit foreign organizations, and opening bank accounts abroad. This change aims to prevent unauthorized foreign travel by members and senators, and the rationale is to prevent the abuse of deputy status for anti-Russian propaganda abroad.
Russia Warns Armenia About Leaning Towards the West
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk warned that Armenia's shift towards the West could have serious consequences. He emphasized that the benefits neighboring states gain from cooperating with Russia should be seen as a price paid for Moscow's security and strategic depth. Overchuk also highlighted that the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union are two incompatible economic projects. Despite the dissatisfaction within the Armenian community regarding relations with Russia, local businesses and Armenian leaders are eager to develop trade and economic relations with Russia. Moscow, in favor of a stable Armenia and good relations, has provided support, such as the quick repair of the railway line that opened Armenia's doors to the world via Georgia after the flood disaster in May. Although the Armenia-Russia trade volume reached 7.3 billion dollars in 2023, relations have started to deteriorate since the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020. Armenia has criticized the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and Russia for not assisting during the border clashes with Azerbaijan in 2021 and 2022. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced plans to withdraw from the CSTO. The next day, Belarus stated that Armenia could remain a CSTO member if Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko offered an apology acceptable to the Armenian people. Experts believe that while it is unlikely that external forces would intervene in Armenia, Russia would respond with political and economic pressure if such a scenario were to occur.
The 2024 United States Presidential Election
The 2024 United States Presidential Election is taking place at a time when global conflicts are merging with ideological and generational differences within American society. Current President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump stand out as the most unpopular and oldest presidential candidates. Despite resistance to their candidacies within both parties, figures like Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis may also play a role in the political arena in the future. The 2024 election will determine not only the next four years but also the long-term development of the United States. Biden and Trump are conducting intense election campaigns, and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is also in the race. For Trump and his team, the selection of a vice president and legal strategies are crucial, while Biden is working to gain an advantage in key states. The election campaigns consist of biography, content, and mobilization phases. Election forecasts are based on various methods, including public opinion polls and historian Allan Lichtman's "13 Keys" system. While The Economist and FiveThirtyEight offer different predictions, poll results in key states are decisive. In the US presidential elections, candidates participate in the race with the required documents for party primaries and independent candidacies. Campaign financing is provided by political action committees, and debates play a significant role in the final stage of the presidential elections. After the new president is elected, preparations related to national security are made. Additionally, the first 100 days after the inauguration are considered a critical period for the new president and their team to effectively implement the party's program.
2024 Iranian Presidential Elections
The presidential elections in Iran, which began on June 28, mark the 14th election since the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution. These elections are being held following the death of incumbent President Ebrahim Raisi in a plane crash in May. Among the six candidates, four are competing: three conservatives and one reformist, with two conservative candidates withdrawing just before the election. A total of 61 million 450 thousand Iranians are eligible to vote at 58,000 polling stations nationwide and 340 polling stations in 100 countries abroad. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has cast his vote, encouraging citizens to participate in large numbers. Polls suggest a turnout of around 52.4%, but experts predict the actual turnout will be lower. Khamenei emphasizes that high turnout is crucial for the reputation and stability of the Islamic Republic. Among the candidates, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf leads with 26%, Expediency Discernment Council member Saeed Jalili with 30.5%, former Interior Minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi with 2%, and reformist candidate and former Health Minister Massoud Pezeshkian with 33%. The likelihood of the election going to a second round is high, with the low turnout increasing this possibility.
2024 French Early Elections
On Sunday, June 30, the first round of early elections for the lower house of the French Parliament began. Right-wing, left-wing, and Macronist groups are forming coalitions to compete more effectively. On June 9, President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the national assembly following the victory of the far-right Marine Le Pen’s "National Rally" (RN) party in the European Parliament elections. RN garnered 31.4% of the vote, surpassing Macron's "Renaissance" party, which received 14.6%. The proportional representation system is used for European Parliament elections, while the majority system is applied for national assembly elections. The centrist Macronists aim to increase the purchasing power of the French and improve access to healthcare. The left-wing coalition, "New People's Front," proposes to halt the price rise of essential goods and lower the retirement age to 62. The far-right "National Rally" (RN) advocates for reducing electricity bills and supports early retirement. In terms of security and combating illegal immigration, RN backs laws that would facilitate the deportation of immigrant criminals, while Macronists plan to establish asylum centers at Europe's external borders. The left-wing coalition has stated it will continue to support military aid to Ukraine. Polls indicate RN is leading with 36.5%, followed by the left-wing coalition with 29%, and Macron's coalition with 20.5%. Following the elections, positive changes in France-Russia relations are expected depending on the victory of right or left parties. However, these relations are predicted to be shaped by the leaders' policies and international developments.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban Announces New Faction in European Parliament
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has announced the establishment of a new faction in the European Parliament called "Patriots for Europe." This alliance will consist of Orban's party "Fidesz" (Hungarian Civic Alliance), ANO 2011 from the Czech Republic, and the Freedom Party of Austria. According to European Parliament rules, a faction requires members from at least four different countries and can be composed of at least 23 representatives from seven states. Former Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, who leads ANO 2011, stated that the new faction aims to defend sovereignty and combat illegal immigration. Herbert Kickl, the leader of the Freedom Party of Austria, declared that the new alliance marks a historic era for freedom and sovereignty in Europe and emphasized that Orban is the only European leader capable of standing against illegal immigration. According to the declaration signed by the alliance leaders, the people of Europe have reached a "historic turning point," and the European Union is now representing interests against Europeans. In May, Orban stated that Europe is trying to balance between war and peace, and the conflict in Ukraine, along with anti-Russian sanctions, has negatively impacted the European economy. According to Orban, although most people favor peace, EU countries are stepping closer to war every day.