(Opinion pieces, interviews, articles, and podcasts produced by Western think tanks)
The complicated geopolitical environment of Central Asia, which is bordered by strong countries like China and Russia, both of whom aim to undermine the global liberal order, was brought to light during the C+C5 Summit in Xi'an, China. Because of its strategic significance, this area—dubbed the "World-Island" by Halford Mackinder—becomes a focus point for neighboring states like Iran and Afghanistan. Russia's influence has been successfully diminished and regional cooperation has increased in Central Asian states since their independence from the Soviet Union thirty years ago. To become less dependent on Russia, Central Asian governments have partnered with China to construct pipelines for gas and oil. Their relationship is complicated, though, by China's muscular diplomacy under Xi Jinping and its historical territorial claims over portions of Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. China's ambassador to France recently made comments that further called into question the sovereignty of the former Soviet states. Even though Beijing later withdrew these comments, recent remarks made by China's ambassador to France casting doubt on the sovereignty of former Soviet states heightened these fears. China's robust economy and investment potential make it an appealing destination for foreign investors despite the associated risks. To broaden their alliances, Central Asian nations are interacting with the US, the EU, Japan, South Korea, and India. With the C5+C Summit, Xi Jinping sought to counterbalance the US-led C5+1 conference and increase Chinese influence. Leaders from Central Asia attended, weighing the advantages of possible economic growth against the dangers of growing Chinese dominance. Many agreements were reached at the summit, but many still required more specific projects. Notably absent was the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan train project, one of the major undertakings. Notably absent was the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan train project, one of the major undertakings. Turkmenistan did not make a bilateral statement with China, indicating a cautious approach. Turkmenistan holds leverage over China because of its substantial gas exports. The United States and its allies have an opportunity in this circumstance. The US can increase trade and investment in Central Asia and lessen the region's reliance on its powerful neighbors by promoting economic diversity and growing commerce. Washington may be positioned as a dependable and peaceful regional partner by adopting a proactive US policy.
2. Countering Russian Influence in the Caucasus – National Interest
Following their meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and President Ursula von der Leyen of the European Commission, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken declared his support for regional cooperation in the areas of transit, energy, and telecommunications. Armenia applauded the West's sustained engagement, notwithstanding their meager financial obligations. Moscow, Baku, Tehran, and Ankara responded angrily; President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan denounced it as opaque and polarizing, while Russia labeled it an anti-Russian ruse. Turkey attacked the West's strategy and downplayed Azerbaijan's activities in Nagorno-Karabakh. The objection of these authoritarian governments is a reflection of a larger reality: it is impractical to expect Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign a comprehensive peace treaty without first ensuring fundamental security. The West's attempts are ineffective because they underestimate Azerbaijan's aggressiveness and concentrate too much on handling a bilateral dispute at the expense of greater regional stability. As a result of Azerbaijan's recent activities in Nagorno-Karabakh, Baku is becoming more and more aligned with Moscow, while Armenia is turning away from Russia as a mediator and toward the West. Baku's aim to oppose Western influence is highlighted by Aliyev's growing alignment with Russia and his unwillingness to participate in scheduled discussions with Pashinyan. In contrast to Baku's predilection for unofficial agreements and lack of assurances for international security, Armenia aims for open and secure regionalism. The peace process is complicated by this imbalance. Despite its limitations, Western diplomacy has served to manage Russia's diminishing power and to uphold rules prohibiting the conquest of new territory. But to achieve long-term peace, security must take precedence over short-term agreements for peace, maybe through nonaggression agreements modeled after past examples, which would establish the foundation for long-term peace in the area.
3. Russia Has Opened Up a New Front. What Comes Next? – The New York Times
Reoccupying multiple villages, the Russian military has initiated a fresh operation in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine. Intending to divert Ukrainian forces from other fronts, this operation puts the second-largest city in Ukraine in danger. Notwithstanding the difficulties that have been built since last year, Ukraine's top aim is to maintain front-line stability and avert a significant advance. Russia plans to undermine other areas by threatening Kharkiv with artillery and forcing Ukraine to reallocate its strongest soldiers. The military of Ukraine is beset with deficiencies in manpower, ammunition, and fortifications. The lack of ammunition should be alleviated by recent U.S. supplies, but attrition and insufficient mobilization efforts mean that manpower is still a major issue. Russia has been able to solve its labor shortage by hiring some 30,000 contract soldiers each month. Despite this, they are unable to achieve major progress due to the caliber of the Russian military and lost leadership. If Ukraine can contain Russian gains this year, it will need to preserve its positions while reorganizing its military to lessen Russia's advantages by 2025.
Georgia's parliament overrode the veto of the president to expedite the enactment of a contentious foreign agent bill and establish an "offshore law." By moving their assets to Georgia by January 1, 2028, residents of Georgia and foreigners with offshore-registered firms can benefit from a one-time tax and import charge exemption under this offshore statute. The law's supporter, Paata Kvizhinadze, asserts that its goal is to draw in companies from offshore regions that are subject to higher levels of taxation and transparency. A few people, most notably Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder of the ruling Georgian Dream party, who owns numerous offshore firms, are said to profit from the law, according to critics. Sanctions against Ivanishvili and the possibility of Russian oligarchs under sanctions shifting their assets to Georgia to thwart the implementation of Western sanctions are among the worries. The measure could endanger Georgia's financial system and Euro-Atlantic ambitions by turning the country into a sanctuary for the wealth of oligarchs. Georgia should be alerted to the possible risks the bill poses to its future by Washington and Brussels.
5. There’s an alternative to Russian-based trade routes—but it needs support from the US, EU, and Turkey – Atlantic Council
The Northern Corridor, a vital commercial route that passes via Russia and connects Europe and China, has become politically and economically challenging in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor, is a potential substitute. The Caucasus, the Black Sea, and Central Asia are all traversed by this multimodal network. Between 2021 and 2023, trade along this route increased dramatically, from 530,000 tons to 2.3 million tons. The TITR has obstacles like antiquated infrastructure, exorbitant expenses, and lengthy lead times, despite its potential. Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Turkey, and other nations along the route are attempting to upgrade and connect their transportation systems. Important initiatives include the Baku Declaration and the development of ports in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. The EU and businesses like Maersk are investing in the route, indicating the increased interest from the West. China's investments support the Belt and Road Initiative and the Middle Corridor as well. Increased backing from the US, EU, and Turkey may promote regional stability and economic expansion.
The Russian Defense Ministry requested approval for a new maritime border project in the Baltic Sea in a memo that was posted online on May 21, 2024. The areas surrounding Kaliningrad and the eastern Gulf of Finland would be affected by the proposed recalculation of Russia's territorial baselines in this document. The idea was to include these seas under the Russian definition of "internal waters." The draft proposal text and technical specifics were missing from the memo, though, so it was unclear exactly what had changed. The letter was taken down from the website by May 22. Russian officials denied that any alterations to the borders were intended. Geopolitical tensions, such as Russia's military drills and Finland's new emergency legislation, coincide with this incident. The document is seen by Western policymakers as a possible provocation, highlighting their continued worries about Russia's ambitions in the area. Officials from Sweden and Lithuania denounced the action as a danger to the stability of the area, while Finland's remarks were more measured and focused on the importance of close observation and respect for international maritime norms.
7. Historical Significance of Zelensky’s Presidency So Far – Wilson Center
On May 20, 2024, when Volodymyr Zelensky's presidency began its fifth year, analysts evaluated his term in light of Ukraine's continued conflict with Russia. Zelensky's biggest accomplishment was his ability to overcome his predecessor's restrictive ethnolinguistic policies and unite and inspire Ukraine via his bravery, communication, and inclusive vision. Many praised his work in preserving state stability, enlisting international backing, and navigating the Russian invasion. However, his preference for dependable people over established organizations undermined the efficacy and confidence in the government. His greatest mistake was miscalculating the strategy, especially concerning the too-optimistic "counteroffensive" rhetoric in 2023 that overextended resources and was out of step with the long-term nature of the fight. Personal bravery and dedication to Ukraine's sovereignty have characterized Zelensky's leadership, but there is still a need for more institutional backing and more defined strategic planning.
8. The dynamics of the Russia-China partnership – Brookings
Presidents Putin and Xi reaffirmed their nations' cooperation during their meeting last week in China, although Russia is still fighting in Ukraine. The alliance acts as a check on the international system that is controlled by the West. Yun Sun and Angela Stent talk about the dynamics. They emphasize how China is Russia's main source of diplomatic and economic support, with China notable for having stopped delivering weaponry but for having greatly increased trade with Russia since the start of the war. Stent analyzes the latest changes to Putin's Cabinet, emphasizing the nomination of Andrei Belousov as defense minister, which reflects Russia's emphasis on the war economy. Sun looks ahead, taking into account China's restrictions on energy absorption and the sustainability of trade growth between China and Russia. Stent emphasizes keeping an eye on military cooperation and nuclear hyperbole as both nations seek to subvert American hegemony and restructure the world order. Though they have similar objectives, their conceptions of a post-Western world order continue to diverge, thus it is important to keep an eye on how their relationship develops.
9. Putin’s cabinet reshuffle: The quartermaster takes over – Brookings
Important developments in Russia's continuing war with the West occurred last week. Victory Day celebrations, featuring nuclear weapons parades and promises to defeat perceived Western threats, especially in Ukraine, fell on Putin's fifth presidential inauguration. After much anticipation, the defense minister, Shoigu, was replaced by economist Andrei Belousov in the much-needed cabinet reshuffle. The news of Shoigu's retirement has sparked conjecture due to accusations of corruption and poor military performance. With the responsibility of combating corruption, optimizing supply chains, and merging the military industry, Belousov's nomination heralds a change to a war economy. This decision was driven by Putin's focus on controlling the military budget. In the meantime, there is continuity in areas of economic and security with the continued appointment of Prime Minister Mishustin and important heads of the major ministries. These modifications highlight Putin's long-term victory vision and are in line with his plan of fortifying Russia's economy and military in the face of the prolonged struggle.
10. Confiscation of immobilized Russian state assets is moral and vital – Chatham House
Discussions of taking control of Russian assets in Western clearinghouses have gathered traction in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The reconstruction of Ukraine is expected to cost $1 trillion, or $500 billion at the most pessimistic estimate, thus funding the military effort and maintaining the economy are the immediate challenges. Three-fifths of the rehabilitation costs or five years' worth of war spending might be covered by repurposing Russian state assets. Proposals to seize solely the interest earned from these assets, which amount to $3–5 billion yearly, don't seem sufficient, though. The crucial question still stands: who will foot the heavy bill for Russia's war? Even in the face of legal disputes and worries about throwing the world economy into disarray, taking assets is a moral protest against violence. Opponents contend that commerce should be preserved and that actions that set precedents should be avoided, yet inaction has serious ramifications of its own. Despite the difficulties and legal arguments surrounding the matter, confining Russian assets is seen as an essential part of the West's resolve to stand with Ukraine and oppose aggression.
Ukraine still has optimism despite recent military victories by Russia, but increased military engagement from the US is required to give the country the required technological edge and training. Though these worries may be overblown, the Biden administration is being cautious out of concern for possible nuclear retaliation or action by Russia against U.S. forces. The United States has gradually increased its military assistance to Ukraine, but more decisive action is required. Russia's threats to NATO not to back Ukraine have not come to pass, indicating that Moscow is reluctant to get involved in a more protracted battle. Furthermore, Russia would suffer grave consequences from using nuclear weapons against Ukraine, including strained relations with important partners. Ukraine's military posture may be improved by changing US policy without running a serious risk of Russian aggression. It is advised that the United States increase its visible military presence in Ukraine, permit the use of weapons supplied by the United States outside of its boundaries, and support its space and cyberspace operations. A greater US commitment might also inspire other allies to provide more money. To prevent a direct military conflict with Russia, caution is advised. The United States can assist Ukraine in defeating Russian forces and changing the course of the conflict by lifting restrictions on aid.
12. Russia is plotting attacks across Europe – and they’re only going to get worse – The Independent
As the first case under new legislation targeting foreign agents, a British man is on trial under the UK's National Security Act, charged with involvement in an arson plot connected to the Wagner Group. This act fits the pattern of behavior that precedes a war with NATO and is part of a larger Russian campaign of sabotage throughout Europe. Similar events include organized attacks on Russian opposition members in Lithuania and the arrest of those preparing attacks for Russia by Germany. Assassination attempts against Ukrainian President Zelenskyy were foiled in Poland, and networks plotting rail network destruction were interrupted. Beyond Ukraine, Russia uses a variety of strategies, including electronic warfare that interferes with aircraft and maritime activity. Air and maritime transportation is impacted by GPS jamming in northern Norway and navigation system interruptions. Russia may act without consequence in the face of economic and safety consequences because of the West's passivity. These acts show that Russia has institutionalized its aggression and is pushing limits with little retaliation. Russia's changing tactics—from state operatives to independent contractors—indicate a continuous danger. Some of these issues are addressed by the UK's National Security Act, but a more brazen attack is anticipated, therefore the West needs to be ready.
13. Why Russia Seeks to Dominate Africa – Hudson Institute
The often-overlooked importance of Niger becomes apparent when Russian forces, siding with the leaders of the most recent coup, take the place of American troops at a vital air base. Niger's poverty and instability have long overshadowed its global relevance, despite its size and potential for resources. However, Putin's geopolitical maneuvering in Africa, particularly Niger, is indicative of larger Russian aspirations to take advantage of errors made by the West, obtain resources, and get over sanctions. To profit itself and Moscow, the Wagner Group, functioning as a private mercenary organization, takes advantage of regional grievances and political shortcomings, ultimately weakening the power of the West. Driven by human rights activism and the promotion of democracy, the West's Africa strategy has frequently disregarded regional complexity, which has contributed to destabilization. Previous interventions—most notably in Libya—have taught us that a reevaluation is needed. Wagner's exploits serve as an example of how Russian influence in Africa will continue unchecked in the absence of a strategic change, which will force Western approaches to the continent to be re-evaluated.
14. Georgia As Geopolitical Hostage – AFPC
Georgia and other nearby countries have been impacted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has upended the international security order. Despite predictions of diminished Russian dominance after Ukraine, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia have remained under Russian influence since Russia's 2008 invasion. With its multiethnic population and economic potential, Abkhazia is a focus point for Russia's geopolitical ambitions, which include plans to build a naval station close to Ochamchire and escalated human rights crimes against Georgians. The establishment of a union state ruled by Russia seems to be Moscow's ultimate goal, endangering the security of Georgia. Georgia is faced with limited options and weak security assurances from the West. As a result, it needs to concentrate on strengthening its military capabilities through alliances and promoting economic cooperation to improve regional connectivity and infrastructure. These tactics provide Tbilisi with the most practical course of action in the face of increased aggression.
15. How a Domestic Violence Trial Ended Kazakhstan’s Political Nihilism – Foreign Policy
Due to its political ramifications, Kazakhstan saw a great deal of attention paid to the trial of Kuandyk Bishimbayev, who is accused of killing his wife Saltanat Nukenova. Following his conviction for bribery, Bishimbayev, a former finance minister, received a 24-year sentence that sparked widespread public outcry and widespread international support. After the verdict, there was a change in the public's perspective of violence against women, which encouraged other victims to come forward and resulted in laws like "Saltanat's Law." President Tokayev's move away from previous administrations and denial of Bishimbayev's pardon was indicative of a larger reform program. Although Bishimbayev employed victim-blaming strategies, public opinion supported responsibility. The trial sparked action against domestic abuse and brought attention to power disparities in society. Prosecutor Aimaganova became a change agent, fighting for the rights of women. The trial's influence went beyond Kazakhstan; it brought domestic abuse issues in adjacent nations to light. Even if the decision brought closure, it is still difficult to enforce the rules prohibiting domestic abuse, which emphasizes the need for ongoing public participation and legislative reform. The legacy of the trial is that, in the midst of political unrest, it helped to revive civic consciousness and faith in the legal system.