(Opinion pieces, interviews, articles, and podcasts produced by Western think tanks)
1) What Will the Political Fallout Be From the Moscow Terrorist Attack?
When faced with a crisis, such as the recent terrorist attack on Moscow's Crocus City Hall, the Kremlin often takes dramatic measures to conceal disarray, restore control, and cement its position of power. Despite the attack exposing flaws in Russia's security system, real improvements appear improbable, with internal conflicts within the state apparatus potentially affecting responses. While proposals for severe anti-terrorism measures or reprisals against Ukraine are being debated, their execution is doubtful due to a variety of issues and possible consequences. While these themes may dominate headlines, they are unlikely to solve essential issues such as terrorism or the situation in Ukraine, instead allowing the regime to adjust to new challenges without changing its underlying ideology.-- Carnegie Politika
2) Russia’s 2024 Election Has Established New Voting Standards
President Vladimir Putin won an unprecedented 87.3% of the vote with a 77.4% turnout in the 2016 Russian presidential election, signaling a shift in which voting looks to be a manufactured performance for a single observer rather than a genuine democratic process. Sergei Kiriyenko, who led the presidential administration's political bloc, openly sought to establish records by employing key performance indicators (KPIs) reminiscent of corporate management practices and Soviet-era tactics. The Kremlin's formula called for 75% of the vote for Putin with a 70% turnout, while regional authorities saw this as requiring more than 80% support to avoid penalty. Methods for "correcting" vote results, such as mobilizing public and corporate personnel, were boldly shown and de facto approved, with administrative and corporate mobilization visible in this year's election. The outcome of the 2024 campaign legalized all electoral manipulations, securing the desired results, but these norms do not ensure immunity from future crises. Kiriyenko's priority continues to generate remarkable results for Putin, secure personal rewards for his team, and strengthen the administration's political bloc.-- Carnegie Politika
3) Why Washington’s approach to Black Sea security may be about to change—for the better
The current US engagement with the Black Sea region, prompted by Russia's aggression and destabilization in its conflict with Ukraine, represents a potential reversal from previous neglect. Section 1247 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024 directs the National Security Council to create a Black Sea security anddevelopment strategy, outlining objectives such as increased coordination with NATO and the EU, deepening economic ties, strengthening energy security, democratic resilience, and improving security assistance to regional partners. These initiatives necessitate a comprehensive approach encompassing both the public and business sectors, emphasizing combating corruption, diversifying energy supplies, resisting Russian influence, and encouraging collaboration among Black Sea states. Despite these attempts, continued Russian threats require a long-term and strategic US commitment to the region to deter Kremlin aggression and foster stability successfully.-- Atlantic Council
4) NATO cannot take Russia’s weakness in the Baltic theater for granted
The political and geopolitical realignment of the Baltic region, spurred by Russia's aggression in Ukraine, has culminated with Sweden's finishing of its NATO admission process. The Russian army's capabilities are eroding on the Ukrainian battlefield, and an informal coalition of Baltic and Northern European governments is forming to oppose Russian aggression as Russia's power declines. Even if Putin has given guarantees, Western officials are nonetheless dedicated to developing defense capabilities, even while public worries about the Russian threat are dwindling. Russia is compelled to reconsider its geostrategic approach and make organizational adjustments to its military structure as a result of the prolonged conflict in Ukraine and NATO's reinforced presence in the Baltic theater. NATO's growing might in the area is not without risk, though, as Russia looks to take asymmetrical actions to make up for its military deficiency, which could lead to an increase in tensions in the Baltic region. In light of these circumstances, Europe must make difficult decisions on how to defend Ukraine and prevent Russian aggression; greater unity and resolve are required.-- Brookings
5) Armenia Seeks to Distance Mother Russia
Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan's remarks regarding possible talks for Armenia's membership in the EU and the country's growing interest in the EU, which coincides with the bloc's increased engagement in the South Caucasus, suggest that Armenia is going through a major transition in its foreign policy. Due to Armenia's tense relations with Russia, Moscow has begun to warn Armenia about its alignment with the West, which has prompted Armenia to pursue stronger collaboration with the EU. This break from Armenia's historical allegiance to Russia is a result of the deteriorated relations between the two countries following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. This change has been further highlighted by recent events like Armenia's diversification of military suppliers and the removal of Russian border guards from Zvartnots airport. Armenia's turn toward the West indicates major changes in its foreign policy landscape despite obstacles, including possible military threats from Azerbaijan and economic pressure from Russia. Russia's response suggests possible roadblocks ahead.-- CEPA
6) What Ukraine Needs From NATO
Deeply steeped in historical and ethnic tensions, the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh has recently escalated amid broader geopolitical forces and power shifts. There have been previous chances to end the conflict, such as democratization initiatives and movements throughout the world toward liberal democracy, but it still exists because of ingrained ethnonationalism and outside factors. Recent events that highlight the difficulties in bringing about peace include Azerbaijan's triumph in the 2020 war and the lack of a definitive settlement. Support for democratization and conflict resolution must continue, but questions remain about the constancy and dedication of Western engagement. Furthermore, a major barrier to peace initiatives is the absence of interfaith cooperation and communication between Armenia and its diaspora, underscoring the necessity of outside mediation and support. Turkey is seen to play a crucial role because of its potential to resolve important issues like the transit corridor conflict through its influence over Azerbaijan. Ultimately, it is believed that to handle the many issues and promote regional stability, a concentrated effort toward systematic support for Armenian integration into Western systems is required.-- CFR
8) Why Russian Elites Are Silent
Following the invasion of Ukraine, hundreds of thousands of Russians left the country in a huge exodus, creating a divided society in which the majority either remain silent or have given up on ever being heard. Remarkably, few well-known people have publicly opposed the war, including clerics and major businessmen; fear is a powerful deterrent. Fearing the repercussions of dissent, many of those who stay in Russia—especially those in the civil service—avoid talking about their opinions, even with friends. Leaving the civil service involves meticulous preparation and unofficial agreements because leaving is usually seen as disagreeing with political decisions. This can have serious consequences, such as false criminal accusations or worse. The Russian elite, having unknowingly signed a figurative deal with the devil by just carrying out their normal responsibilities on Putin's terms, finds itself caught in a society where even minor dissent is dangerous. They are tied by invisible contracts and unwritten regulations.-- Wilson Center
9) Russia’s Civil Aviation in the Wake of the Sanctions
After Russia invaded Ukraine, the country's civil aviation industry faced grave difficulties. Western sanctions led to requests from foreign leasing companies to return leased aircraft, endangering the industry's very existence. But while going through a structural transition toward state dependence, the industry persisted thanks to market player resources and state involvement. Russian airlines, who had always relied on aircraft of Western origin, found themselves abruptly confronted with a political terrain when leasing arrangements became enmeshed in geopolitical conflicts. The government quickly passed legislation prohibiting the export of leased aircraft, guaranteeing the industry's survival under government supervision. Notwithstanding cash infusions and inventiveness, the industry's reliance on the government has grown. The sector's strategic importance for gaining access to Russia's enormous regions and resources is highlighted by the government's heavy spending. Despite adapting to survive, the industry's place in the global aviation system is still unknown, indicating a shift away from its Soviet-era roots and toward a more secluded existence cut off from global networks.-- Wilson Center
10) Is Moldova a new battleground in Russia’s war?
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, there has been increased fear that Moldova may be the next country under Russian attack. Pro-European Moldovan politicians are preparing for increased Russian efforts to undermine the nation, especially with two significant elections coming up this year. Moscow's possible expansionist objective is hinted at by the pro-Russian separatist leaders in Transnistria's demand for protection, which is similar to previous events in Ukraine. Located between Romania and Ukraine, Moldova is becoming more and more susceptible to Russian influence. Kremlin strategies include disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, and election meddling. Significant obstacles nevertheless remain despite Moldova's efforts to strengthen its resistance against Russian meddling, including the establishment of new institutions and tactics, particularly concerning judicial independence and misinformation management. Supporting Moldova's resilience and thwarting Russian aggression requires international assistance, especially from the G7 and the EU. This calls for quick action and cooperation on several fronts, including judicial sanctions, tech platform oversight, and diplomatic pressure on important individuals who are providing sanctuary to fugitive oligarchs.-- Chatham House
11) How geopolitical competition in the Black Sea is redefining regional order
12) The U.S. Can't Guarantee Armenia's Security, Despite Azerbaijan's Threats, but It Can Help
After losing in Nagorno-Karabakh and experiencing recent border conflicts, Armenia is reevaluating its foreign policy in light of Azerbaijan's issues and its discontent with Russia. Armenia's membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) has been suspended by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, suggesting a possible move away from Moscow's sway. Even if it could be tempted to intervene, the US should act with caution and strengthen Armenia's defense capabilities while making clear the boundaries of its commitments. The United States might promote communication, peace agreements, and the restoration of Armenia-Turkey relations amid regional unrest. To properly protect its interests, Armenia must, however, diversify its relationships, hedge its security relationship with Russia, acknowledge the complexity of its regional dynamics, and avoid making either-or decisions regarding Western allegiance.-- RAND
13) The Middle Corridor: A Renaissance in Global Commerce
Global shipping routes have been affected by the rise of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and international sanctions against Russia, leading some firms to choose other routes, such as the Cape of Good Hope, rather than the Suez Canal. Due to the invasion of Ukraine, Russia's flow of westbound freight has slowed. As a result, interest in the Middle Corridor has grown as a possible substitute for global markets. Many maritime companies continue to operate in the Red Sea despite persistent security worries; however, they charge extra to cover additional risks. Even though it takes longer and costs more to travel, some businesses have chosen to reroute across the Cape of Good Hope. Bypassing Iran and tracing the ancient Silk Road path, the Middle Corridor provides benefits over current routes, including improved security and faster transit times. Its growth is being propelled by international collaboration and infrastructure developments, which provide Central Asia economic prospects and possible sources of income for transit nations. However, obstacles like local disputes and rivalry from well-established maritime routes persist, underscoring the difficulties in fulfilling the Middle Corridor's promise as a crucial commercial route. Despite these obstacles, the Middle Corridor has the potential to play a significant role in the connectivity of trade across Eurasia in the twenty-first century with sustained investment and cooperation.-- The Diplomat
14) The Fire That Didn’t Burn: Transnistria’s Unanswered Call for Russian Support
In late February, the legislature of Transnistria, a pro-Russia breakaway area acknowledged as part of Moldova, asked Moscow for "protection" against the pro-European administration in Chisinau, prompting fears of Russian involvement or annexation. Western media speculated on comparisons with Russian-backed separatist wars and potential escalation, similar to events preceding the Ukraine crisis. However, these suspicions were baseless, since no such action took place, and Putin did not mention Transnistria in his speech. President Sandu's pragmatic attitude, combined with logistical restrictions like as a lack of territory continuity with Russia and Black Sea dynamics, hampered any serious Russian military involvement. Despite Western opinion that frequently ignores these facts and Russia's actual constraints, Moscow may continue to use unconventional techniques to destabilize Moldova and undermine its Western aspirations.-- FPRI
15) Evan Gershkovich Has Been Jailed In Russia For A Full Year. What Will It Take To Free Him?
In the last year, Russian officials detained Wall Street Journal writer Evan Gershkovich on espionage accusations while he was on duty in Yekaterinburg, causing international concern. Gershkovich, who was falsely labeled a spy by the US State Department, remains in prison despite strong calls for his release. His case, like that of American-Russian journalist Alsu Kurmasheva, who was imprisoned for failing to register as a foreign agent, demonstrates a troubling pattern of attacking journalists in Russia. This crackdown on press freedom has forced some media organizations to withdraw their staff from Moscow, limiting the flow of information from Russia. Negotiations for a prisoner swap including Gershkovich, Kurmasheva, and others have become problematic amid heightened tensions between Russia and the United States. Negotiations for the release of Gershkovich, Kurmasheva, and others have been hindered by heightened tensions between Russia and the United States, as well as the tragic death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Despite bipartisan attempts to gain their release, Gershkovich's colleagues and friends continue to push for his release, holding public gatherings on the anniversary of his arrest to raise awareness and keep pressure on both governments to act.-- HuffPost