Iran Seeks to Change Its Nuclear Policy
The head of Iran's Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Kamal Kharrazi, has said that his country could change its nuclear doctrine if faced with an “existential threat”. In an interview with Al Mayadeen, Kharrazi emphasised that Iran is capable of responding to any military escalation and has the technical means to produce nuclear weapons, but the only deterrent in this regard is the fatwa of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Kharrazi said the changes could also include long-range missile policies, referring to Iran's ballistic missile attacks against Israel in Operation “True Promise 2”. Stating that Iran will respond if Israel continues its hostile actions, Kharrazi reiterated that Iran does not intend to produce nuclear weapons. Finally, the Iranian Foreign Ministry and military officials stated that Israel's attacks will be met with proportionate and calculated responses and that they will continue their policy of avoiding escalation of tensions in the region.
(Ведомости, “Иран может изменить ядерную политику в случае «экзистенциальной угрозы»”, (01.11.2024))
Turkey's Mediation in the Ukraine-Russia War
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Turkey's military support for Ukraine contradicts Ankara's attempts to mediate in the Russia-Ukraine war. In an interview with Hurriyet newspaper on 31 October, Lavrov stated that Turkish weapons were being used by Ukraine against Russian soldiers and civilians. However, emphasising that Moscow appreciates Turkey's peace efforts and is open for a political solution, Lavrov stated that Ukraine is not pro-negotiation in the current conditions, so mediation attempts are unlikely to succeed. Lavrov recalled that Turkey hosted the peace talks in Istanbul in 2022, which led to the signing of the “grain corridor” agreement, but then the peace talks collapsed when Western powers forbade Kiev to cease hostilities on the condition of balancing the interests of the opposing sides. On the other hand, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said after the BRICS summit that Turkey would continue its diplomatic efforts for peace and discussed with Putin such issues as prisoner exchange, resumption of the grain agreement and mine clearance in the Black Sea. However, Turkey's establishment of a Bayraktar production facility in Ukraine and various arms deliveries raise questions in Moscow about Turkey's policy of neutrality. Experts argue that Turkey should end such military aid in order to maintain its mediation role.
(Ведомости, “Посредничество Турции в украинском конфликте России не нужно”, (02.11.2024))
Second Round of Presidential Elections in Moldova
In the second round of presidential elections in Moldova, which started on 3 November, people are choosing between the current Moldovan President Maia Sandu and former Moldovan Prosecutor General Alexandr Stoianoglo. According to the Central Election Commission, a total of 2219 ballot boxes were opened, 1988 in the country and 231 abroad. 3.6 million ballot papers were prepared for voting, of which 839,000 were printed for use abroad, 746,929 in Russian and 3900 in Gagauzian. More than 2400 national and international observers are following the elections. Since no candidate exceeded 50 per cent in the first round, a second round is being held. In the first round, Sandu came ahead with 656 thousand votes (42.49 per cent), while Stoianoglo received 401 thousand votes (25.95 per cent). Sandu (Action and Solidarity Party), known for his pro-EU membership policies, has been serving as president since 2020. Former Moldovan Prosecutor General Stoianoglo (Socialist Party of the Republic of Moldova), on the other hand, defends Moldova's policy of neutrality and emphasises the need to maintain good relations with Russia. The election results are of great importance for the political future of the country.
(Ведомости, “В Молдавии начался второй тур президентских выборов”, (03.11.2024))
Moldova Election Results
Moldovan President Maia Sandu was re-elected in the second round of the presidential elections with 55.33 per cent of the vote. Sandu's victory was made possible by the strong support of Moldovan voters, especially those living abroad. Former Moldovan Prosecutor General Alexandr Stoianoglo fell behind Sandu with 44.67 per cent of the vote. The fact that domestic voters overwhelmingly supported Stoianoglo reveals that Sandu's domestic popularity has declined during his four years in power. Sandu, known for his pro-European Union membership policies, received 83 per cent support from voters abroad, while his domestic support remained at 49 per cent. Stoianoglo was favoured by voters dissatisfied with the government due to the economic crisis and rising energy costs. On the other hand, Western media and politicians accused Russia of interfering in the elections, while Sandu's opponents alleged irregularities in the elections. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen congratulated Sandu on his election victory and stated that they will continue to work together for Moldova's European future. Sandu's victory was considered as an important step towards Moldova's integration with the EU. It is emphasised that this situation may have critical effects on the political balances and regional policies of the country.
Vladimir Putin and North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui Held a Meeting
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui at the Kremlin on 4 November. The public part of the meeting was characterized by greetings between the leaders and the transmission of greetings from North Korean National Leader Kim Jong-un to Putin. Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov and Putin's adviser, former Russian Ambassador to the United States Yuriy Ushakov, also attended the meeting. Prior to the meeting, Choe Son-hui held a series of meetings in Moscow and Vladivostok, where he and Lavrov unveiled a plaque commemorating the visit of former North Korean President Kim Il-sung, the founder of North Korea, to the Soviet Union in 1949. The talks followed the signing of the “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement” between Russia and North Korea, while Western countries alleged that North Korean troops would support Russia in the conflict in Ukraine. On 31 October, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that North Korean troops were stationed in Russia and could participate in the conflict. Commenting on these allegations, Putin stated that the provisions of the agreement signed with North Korea would be carefully implemented and that cooperation between the two countries was important. While the talks revealed the deepening of the strategic partnership between Russia and North Korea,
Israeli Prime Minister's Confidence Crisis Statement
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu announced that he dismissed Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Galant due to lack of mutual trust. Netanyahu, in a statement on Telegram, stated that Galant made statements and actions contrary to cabinet decisions and stated that full harmony between the prime minister and the defence minister is essential for the success of the country. According to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Netanyahu had postponed this decision due to some problems in the security office. The dismissal notice was delivered to Galant during a meeting, and Galant emphasised that Israel's security is the mission of his life in a post on the social media platform X. Galant was replaced by Israeli Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz, while Katz was replaced by former Israeli Justice Minister Gideon Sa'ar. Netanyahu's move reshaped the political balances within the government and fuelled public debate on the crisis of confidence.
(Ведомости, “Нетаньяху уволил министра обороны Израиля Галанта”, (05.11.2024))
Steps of Cooperation between the Governments of Russia and Belarus
The heads of government of Russia and Belarus signed 19 agreements to deepen cooperation between the two countries. In this framework, it was announced that international roaming charges between the two countries will be abolished as of 1 March. In addition, an agreement was reached on equalisation of railway tariffs, development of intercity railway networks, common rules on the protection of consumer rights and granting ‘Union State’ status to the products of both countries. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin stated that the abolition of roaming charges was an important decision for citizens, while Belarusian Prime Minister Raman Halouchanka added that restrictions such as internet traffic would be imposed by the decision. The decision had been delayed for a long time, especially due to the financial concerns of Belarusian telecommunications companies. The process of increasing economic and social integration between the two countries has gained momentum in recent years, with trade volume exceeding 3 trillion rubles in 2023. The governments also announced the establishment of a joint university to provide educational co-operation in the field of high technology. These decisions were seen as part of the strategic steps taken within the framework of the ‘State of Unity’ ahead of the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, scheduled for December.
Green Economy Agreement in Turkey-Kyrgyzstan Relations
During the official visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to Kyrgyzstan, an important agreement was reached between the two countries. President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov thanked President Erdogan, announcing that Turkey cancelled Kyrgyzstan's foreign debt worth 62.3 million dollars. It was stated that the debt forgiveness was realised on the condition that green economy projects were implemented. Previously, Germany had similarly cancelled Kyrgyzstan's $14 million debt in exchange for environmental projects. However, Kyrgyzstan still owes Turkey $58.8 million from a $100 million loan received between 2012 and 2015 for social and economic projects. Erdoğan's visit will end on 6 November with his participation in the Organisation of Turkic States Summit. This development is seen as part of Turkey's efforts to improve its relations with BRICS in line with its NATO alliance and European Union membership objectives. Turkey's goal of strengthening its place in the world geopolitical system continues to translate into concrete steps through Erdoğan's international contacts.
2024 United States Presidential Elections
In the US presidential elections held on 5 November, Republican Party candidate Donald Trump was elected the 47th president of the USA with a critical victory. In the process carried out with a two-stage election system, it was sufficient to win 270 of the 538 electoral delegates, while Trump received 277 delegate votes, superior to the 224 votes of Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party. Trump achieved victory in at least four of the seven critical states that were seen in balance before the election. The Republican Party also secured a majority in the Senate. The international repercussions of the election results, the Kremlin's assessments and detailed analyses continue to be presented to the public on different platforms.
(Ведомости, “Итоги выборов президента США. Главное”, (06.11.2024))
Vladimir Putin's Valday Speech
In his speech at the XXI International Valday Discussion Club meeting held in Sochi, Russian President Vladimir Putin drew attention to the radical changes in the world order and stated that the current system is irreversibly coming to an end and that a struggle is being waged for a new world order. Putin stated that the West, by imposing totalitarian ideologies, shows intolerance towards alternative ideas and independent thoughts, and this situation leads to problems ranging from neofascism to terrorism. He also warned that the West could resort to the use of nuclear weapons, emphasising that such threats could cause a global catastrophe. Putin described NATO as a dysfunctional structure and pointed to the importance of multilateral cooperation mechanisms such as BRICS. Stating that Russia continues to integrate into the global system by overcoming economic sanctions, Putin said that they will continue to pursue independent policies on issues such as artificial intelligence, green energy and the use of national currencies. Stating that hegemony has no place in the new world order, Putin stated that a balanced structure should be established to protect the interests of all members of the international community.
(Ведомости, “Владимир Путин выступил на «Валдае». Главное”, (07.11.2024))
Bolivia's BRICS Partnership Status
Bolivian President Luis Arce described his country's accession to BRICS as a partner country as the greatest achievement of his foreign policy. Speaking on the occasion of his fourth anniversary in office, Arce described the move as one of two major milestones in Bolivia's history. Emphasising that BRICS membership would have a lasting impact on the economy, finance, trade, culture and geopolitics, Arce pointed to accession to the South American Common Market (MERCOSUR) as another major achievement. At the BRICS Summit held in Kazan on 22-24 October, Russian President Vladimir Putin highlighted the developing relations with Bolivia in various fields, from politics to trade, education to culture, and the two countries' similar perspectives on world order. The presence of representatives of 35 states and six international organisations at the summit once again demonstrated the global authority and importance of BRICS.
The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation held talks with the Foreign Ministers of Algeria and Ethiopia
Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov held separate meetings with Algerian Foreign Minister Ahmed Attaf and Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timotheos on the sidelines of the Russia-Africa Partnership Forum. Lavrov and Attaf discussed the development of relations between Russia and Algeria and emphasised the strengthening of cooperation on multilateral platforms such as the UN Security Council. They also emphasised the importance of resolving crises in the Middle East and the Sahara-Sahel region through political and diplomatic means on the basis of the UN Charter and international law. In his meeting with his Ethiopian counterpart Timotheos, Lavrov agreed to expand mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries and deepen dialogue on international issues within the framework of BRICS and the UN. It was announced that more than 1500 participants, including ministers of foreign affairs, education, economy, technology and other fields from more than 40 African countries will take part in the forum, which will be held in Sochi on 9-10 November.
(Ведомости, “Лавров встретился с министрами иностранных дел Алжира и Эфиопии”, (08.11.2024))
Russia Ready to Consider Proposals on Ukraine
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said that Russia is ready to listen to the proposals of Donald Trump, who won the US presidential elections, on how to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. Ryabkov emphasised that there is no room for doubt in this regard, adding that Russia carefully considers all ideas presented by international actors. However, he emphasised that the proposals should not be mere promises, and that concrete actions were needed. Ryabkov said that Moscow would analyse and respond to concrete solutions offered by Washington, adding that Trump's campaign promises of a quick solution were more rhetoric aimed at attracting attention. The Financial Times reported that Trump proposed a solution by revisiting the Minsk agreements and adding coercive measures accompanied by the control mechanisms of European powers. In addition, according to the Wall Street Journal, Trump's team has developed a proposal in which the US would continue arms deliveries to Kiev providing security guarantees in exchange for Ukraine's commitment not to join NATO for 20 years. In the light of all these developments, Ryabkov said that no easy solution was possible and that Russia would make an assessment based on concrete data from the new US administration.
Russian Security Council Secretary Visits China
Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu will meet with the country's top political leaders during his 11-14 November visit to China. Within the framework of the visit, Shoigu is expected to hold extensive consultations on strategic security and regional cooperation issues with Vang Yi, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China and Chairman of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Communist Party of China Central Committee. He will also hold talks with former Russian Defence Minister Chen Wenqing, former Minister of State Security of the People's Republic of China, and attend the international debut of the Russian-made fifth-generation jet Suhoy Su-57 fighter at the Airshow China 2024 air show in Zhuhai. The visit is seen as part of efforts to deepen the security and cooperation areas of bilateral relations, following the signing of a comprehensive strategic cooperation agreement in May by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Shoigu's contacts are expected to lead to solution-oriented results on regional and international security issues.
(Ведомости, “Шойгу на следующей неделе посетит Китай”, (10.11.2024))
On EU Ammunition Aid to Ukraine
The European Union announced that more than 2024 thousand ammunition aid has been provided to Ukraine throughout 980 and this figure is expected to exceed 1 million by the end of the year. Josep Borrell, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, emphasised that the EU will fulfil its commitment to deliver 1 million ammunition annually, stating that “so far we have delivered more than 980 thousand ammunition and very soon this number will reach 1 million”. Borrell also stated that in addition to this commitment of the EU, the total number of ammunition will exceed 1.5 million by the end of the year with the shipments made within the framework of Czech initiatives and bilateral agreements. By 2025, it was stated that the EU will be able to continue to deliver at this level by increasing its ammunition production capacity. On 9 November, Borrell, who made his fifth and last official visit to Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, evaluated the issues of support for Ukraine within the framework of the changing international dynamics after Donald Trump won the US presidential elections. On the other hand, Borrell is reportedly preparing to hand over his post to former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, whom the European Commission approved in September.
(Ведомости, “Боррель: Евросоюз передал Украине около 1 млн снарядов в 2024 году”, (11.11.2024))
COP29 World Leaders Climate Summit in Azerbaijan
At the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29), which kicked off in Baku on October 11, representatives of 198 countries are discussing financing for developing countries in the fight against climate change. More than 50,000 people, including government officials, investors and environmental activists, are attending the summit at the Baku Olympic Stadium. The summit is referred to as the “finance COP” because it is on the agenda to set a new annual financing target to support developing countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and cope with the impacts of climate change. The annual target of $100 billion set in 2009 has so far not been met, prompting the search for more effective solutions. On the other hand, despite environmental reports criticizing the growth of the fossil fuel sector, the Azerbaijani government continues its efforts to transition to renewable energy and economic transformation in line with the green agenda. Experts expect the summit to discuss in detail how to integrate climate targets in global financing systems, mutual recognition of green certificates and transparent management of projects. The conference is expected to end on November 22nd.
(Ведомости, “Азербайджан принимает климатический саммит ООН”, (12.11.2024))
Relations between China and Russia at Historic High
Former Minister of State Security of the People's Republic of China Chen Wenqing said at a meeting with Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu that China-Russia relations have reached the highest level in history, and the two countries have strengthened political and strategic trust. The relationship has reached the level of comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation thanks to the strategic planning and important agreements of Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Chinese official said. The two sides continue their efforts to safeguard core interests and deepen strategic cooperation in various fields with a view to cooperation based on mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit. It was also emphasised that China and Russia have become an example of cooperation and positive interaction between great powers. During his visit to China, Shoigu emphasised the importance of taking a common stance against the US “containment policy” and stated that an equal and indivisible security architecture should be built in Eurasia.
The policy of containment is the name given to the doctrine pursued by the US since the early years of the Cold War and aimed at limiting the USSR's growing influence after World War II.
(Ведомости, “В Китае заявили о наивысшем уровне отношений с Россией”, (13.11.2024))
Russia Prepares for Cooperation with the Arab World
Head of the Information and Press Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zaharova, announced that Moscow is ready for close co-operation with Arab and Muslim countries to reduce and resolve conflicts in the Middle East. Referring to the summit of the League of Arab States and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation held in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, Zaharova said that the decisions taken there were in line with Russia's basic approaches. Emphasising that Russia appreciates the determination of the countries in the region to play a leading role in the resolution of the conflict, Zaharova said that a joint effort is required for a comprehensive settlement of the crisis through diplomatic and political means. Tensions in the Middle East have been heightened by the Israel Defence Forces' operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon in September 2024, followed by limited ground operations. Russia calls for multilateral co-operation to ensure regional stability in this process.
Telephone Conversation between Vladimir Putin and Olaf Scholz
Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held a telephone conversation lasting about an hour. In the statement made by the German government, it was stated that Scholz condemned the special military operation in Ukraine and called on Russia to withdraw its troops. Scholz emphasised the importance of negotiations for a just and lasting peace and stated that Germany will support Ukraine as long as needed. The meeting was reported to be the first direct contact between the two leaders since 2022. The Kremlin announced that the meeting took place at the initiative of the German side, and stated that the two leaders had a detailed and sincere exchange of ideas on the situation in Ukraine. Putin said that NATO's anti-Russian policies over the years had triggered the crisis and that Moscow was open to negotiations, but Kiev was unwilling to do so. The Russian leader also emphasised that any possible agreements with Ukraine should take into account Russia's security interests and current regional realities. Ukraine is entering a critical period as it prepares for its third winter with heavily damaged energy infrastructure.
(Ведомости, “Путин и Шольц созвонились впервые с 2022 года”, (15.11.2024))
G7 Leaders Pledge Support for Ukraine and Sanctions Against Russia
As the thousandth day of Russia's military operation approaches, G7 leaders pledged to support Ukraine indefinitely and to pressure Russia with measures such as sanctions and export controls. The statement issued under the Italian presidency emphasised support for Ukraine's struggle to defend its sovereignty, freedom, independence and territorial integrity, and stated that this support would continue as long as needed. The G7 characterised Russia as “the only obstacle to a just and lasting peace” and reiterated its commitment to impose serious costs on Moscow.
Ukraine's Green Light for Russia to Use Long-Range Missiles
US President Joe Biden for the first time authorised the use of long-range missiles supplied to Ukraine in attacks on Russian territory. According to The New York Times, this decision was taken specifically in response to Ukraine's request to use these missiles in its attacks on military targets in Russia's Kursk region. While US officials stated that this authorisation was a response to the allegations that North Korean troops were stationed in Russia, it was stated that the decision was taken in the last months of Biden's presidential term and that this situation reflects a significant change in US policy towards Ukraine. The French newspaper Le Figaro reported that France and the UK also approved the use of the SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles they provided to Ukraine for similar purposes. While the Russian Defence Ministry reported that Ukraine had failed in its attacks on the Kursk region and suffered losses, Ukraine's claims that it could not use such weapons without the support of Western experts caused Russia to consider this situation as a violation of its nuclear deterrence doctrine. While closely monitoring these developments, the Kremlin is considering the possibility of leaving its possible responses until after the change of administration in the US. Biden's decision re-emphasises the US support for Ukraine and adds a new dimension to the increasing tension between the West and Russia.
Kremlin Calls for Normalisation of the Situation in Abkhazia
Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said that the situation in Abkhazia should be normalised within the constitutional framework as soon as possible. Peskov stated that Russia-Abkhazia relations are an important priority of foreign policy and that Moscow supports the stabilisation of this process. The protests, which began on 12 November, are being held against the draft law that gives privileges to Russian companies in investment projects in Abkhazia. In fact, the protesters are concerned that this bill will have a negative impact on local businesses. President of Abkhazia Aslan Bzhania said that the protests would not improve relations with Russia, while opposition leader Adgur Ardzinba said that the protests were not of an “anti-Russian” nature and that the strategic partnership and fraternal relations were resolutely continuing. However, experts predict that the current tensions will be protracted and pose the threat of a possible armed conflict.
(Ведомости, “Кремль выступает за нормализацию обстановки в Абхазии”, (18.11.2024))
Vladimir Putin's New Nuclear Doctrine
Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved the country's new nuclear deterrence policies and announced that these policies have been published in official documents. According to the documents, any attack on Russia and its allies will be considered as one of the highest priority threats of the state. The policy of nuclear deterrence is defensive, aimed at protecting the territorial integrity of the country and involves the use of nuclear weapons only in cases of necessity. According to the doctrine, the possession of nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction by an adversary, the approach of a military coalition to Russia's borders and the deployment of strategic offensive systems are considered as significant threats. Moreover, an attack on Russia by any member state of the military coalition will be considered as an attack on behalf of the entire coalition. Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stressed that this doctrine should be thoroughly analysed in the international arena, adding that Russia has always taken a responsible approach to this issue. Peskov reminded that these changes are a clear message to the West and that Russia will retaliate swiftly in the event of an attack.
(Ведомости, “Путин подписал указ об основах госполитики ядерного сдерживания”, (19.11.2024))
Erdoğan's Call to NATO
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated that NATO should reflect on Russia's renewed nuclear doctrine, saying that this step was taken as a response to the alliance's stance. Speaking at a press conference after the G20 summit, Erdoğan emphasised that this step of Russia should be discussed in detail by NATO officials. Erdoğan also stated that Russia has all the means in terms of defence, but NATO countries should review their own defences. The new nuclear deterrence policy approved by Russian President Vladimir Putin on 19 November defines the prevention of possible attacks against the country and its allies as one of the highest priorities of the state. While stressing that this policy is defensive, Erdoğan stated that Ukraine's use of long-range missiles increases the risk of nuclear tension and that the parties should take steps towards peace as soon as possible.
(Ведомости, “Эрдоган: НАТО стоит задуматься над новой ядерной доктриной России”, (19.11.2024))
Badr Gunba takes office as Acting President of Abkhazia
After the resignation of the former President of Abkhazia Aslan Bzhania on 19 November, Badr Gunba was appointed Acting President. Bzhania's resignation followed protests that began on 12 November and the opposition's call for him to step down. The protests erupted after the announcement of a new investment agreement with Russia, which gives Russian companies various privileges in the real estate sector. Concerns that the rental of tourist accommodation, which is a source of income for many people in Abkhazia, will suffer due to the presence of large companies, provoked a public outcry. The opposition characterised the agreement as a “conspiracy of the oligarchies of the two countries”, while emphasising that the protests were not anti-Russian. Badr Gunba stated that he had instructed the state organs to continue within the framework of the law when he took office. Bzhania, on the other hand, announced that he would run in the presidential elections in 2025.
(Ведомости, “К исполнению обязанностей президента Абхазии приступил Бадра Гунба”, (19.11.2024))
China Calls for Calmness After Russia's Nuclear Doctrine Update
Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian stated that they are closely following the news that Russia has updated its nuclear doctrine and invited all countries involved in the conflict in Ukraine to consult. Emphasising that in the current situation, all parties should take steps within the framework of mutual understanding to reduce strategic risks and ease tensions, Lin stated that China's position on the Ukrainian crisis is clear and consistent. China will remain committed to a political settlement of the crisis and play a constructive role in this regard, he said, reiterating his country's position that UN principles, the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected, and that other parties should not deviate from these principles.
International Criminal Court Issues Arrest Warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant
The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, accusing them of war crimes and crimes against humanity for depriving the civilian population of Gaza of basic necessities for survival, in particular food, water, medicine and electricity, between October 8, 2023 and May 20, 2024. The ICC stated that these actions hindered the activities of humanitarian organizations in the region. The Israeli government accused the ICC of political bias, arguing that the decision was antisemitic. The ICC also issued an arrest warrant for Mohammed Deif (Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al-Masri), the former commander of Hamas' military wing. These ICC arrest warrants are seen as a political move against the Israeli government, especially after the US presidential elections. Experts say that Netanyahu may use this decision to defend Israel's righteousness in the international community.
(Ведомости, “Международный уголовный суд выдал ордер на арест Нетаньяху и Галанта”, (21.11.2024))
Putin held a phone call with Iraqi Prime Minister
Russian President Vladimir Putin held a telephone conversation with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shiya al-Sudani. They discussed cooperation between the two countries in trade, economy, transportation, logistics and humanitarian fields. Details of the implementation of major projects in the energy sector were discussed. In addition, joint work within the framework of “OPEC+” (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and the importance of continued cooperation in this format were emphasized. The leaders also discussed developments in the Middle East and agreed to continue contacts at different levels. During their face-to-face meeting in Moscow in October last year, Putin and Sudani discussed energy issues and tensions in the Middle East. Also, in November this year, an Iraqi government delegation in Russia visited Russian universities and reached agreements on the launch of vocational training programs for Iraqi officials.
(Ведомости, “Путин провел телефонный разговор с премьер-министром Ирака”, (21.11.2024))
Russia refuses to recognize the verdict of the International Criminal Court
Russia said it does not recognize the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) against Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev told Al Arabiya that Russia does not recognize the ICC and considers it illegitimate. Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov also said that the ICC's decisions are null and void and that the Court's actions do not bring any benefit. On November 21, the ICC issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant, as well as for Mohammed Deif (Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al-Masri), the former commander of Hamas' military wing. All three are accused of crimes against humanity and war crimes. Netanyahu's office condemned the ICC's decision as an “antisemitic decision” and Israeli President Izak Herzog criticized the Court's stance, saying that the ICC ignored the 101 Israeli hostages held by Hamas and the use of civilians as human shields by Palestinian groups.
(Ведомости, “Медведев: Россия не признает решение МУСа по Нетаньяху и Галанту”, (22.11.2024))
Medvedev Says Ukraine Conflict May End
The Russian-Ukrainian war in Ukraine can be ended without new damage to humanity if NATO countries stop “fanning the flames of war,” Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said. In an interview with the Al Arabiya channel, Medvedev emphasized that if NATO is directly involved among the belligerents, Russia will respond, adding that anything is possible if the level of such a conflict rises. He also added that Russia's threshold for using nuclear weapons is low, in line with the new deterrence doctrines. On November 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the use of a new generation of Russian medium-range ballistic missile systems “Орешник” (Oreşnik - Hazelnut Tree) against Ukrainian military industrial facilities. Putin called the attacks by the United States and the United Kingdom on Russian territory a “response” and stated that Russia has the right to take military action against countries that wage war against it.
US Accuses Russia of Complicating Relations with India
US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Kurt M. Campbell stated that bilateral relations between India and the United States have been facing “strong headwinds” in recent times and that these headwinds stem from the relations with Russia and BRICS. Campbell emphasized that the differences in India's perspective on its relations with Russia and BRICS are among the factors affecting the cooperation between the two countries. On the other hand, trade between India and Russia has been growing rapidly in recent years, with Russia significantly increasing its exports to India going into 2024. In the first half of 2024, Russia exported 22% more diamonds to India, while India started supplying aluminum to Russia after a 15-year hiatus. India, as a member of BRICS, participated in this year's summit in Kazan and continues to participate in its activities in pursuit of common goals of economic cooperation, political dialogue, social development and scientific and technological cooperation.
(Ведомости, “Госдеп обвинил Россию и БРИКС в нарушении отношений США и Индии”, (23.11.2024))
2024 Romanian Presidential Elections
Voting for the presidential elections in Romania has started. According to Reuters and Agencia EFE news agencies, 14 candidates are in the race and three of them are in the lead. Outgoing Romanian President Klaus Iohannis has been criticized for failing to fight corruption, despite having strengthened his pro-Western stance. Among the candidates, George Simion, a right-wing politician and member of the Romanian Chamber of Deputies, stands out with his stance against military aid to Ukraine, his admiration for US President Donald Trump, and his role modeling of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Other prominent candidates are Marchel Ciolacu from the Social Democratic Party and Elena-Valerica Lasconi, leader of the “Save Romania Union” and Mayor of Câmpulung. According to the polls, Ciolacu is expected to receive 24% of the votes, Simion 15.4% and Lasconi 15.3%. In case there is no clear winner in the first round, a second round will be held on December 8.
(Ведомости, “В Румынии начались президентские выборы”, (24.11.2024))
Abkhazia - Political Crisis
Abkhazia is going through its third political crisis in recent years. On November 19, former Abkhazian President Aslan Bzhania resigned in agreement with the opposition after the government building was occupied. The crisis was triggered by the preparation for the signing of an investment agreement with Moscow on privileges for Russians when investing in the tourism sector. This agreement was criticized by the local population and eventually withdrawn. By February 19, presidential elections will be held in Abkhazia, the date of which will be set by the Central Election Commission next week. Concerns about the future of Abkhazia are centered on the sale of local lands to foreigners and the country's economic independence.
Israel Approves Ceasefire Proposal with Hezbollah
Israel has accepted a proposed ceasefire with the Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will reportedly present this agreement to the public in the near future and it will be presented as a positive deal for Israel, not a compromise.
Surprise Result in Romanian Presidential Elections
In the first round of Romania's presidential elections, contrary to expectations, independent right-wing populist candidate Călin Georgescu came first with 22.95% of the vote. The closest candidate, Elena-Valerica Lasconi, leader of the “Save Romania Union” and Mayor of Câmpulung, received 19.17%, while Marchel Ciolacu of the Social Democratic Partyreceived 19.15%. With these results, for the first time since the fall of Nicolae Ceausescu's regime, the Social Democrats failed to advance to the second round. Georgescu's active campaign on TikTok was characterized by promises to end import dependency in agriculture and cut aid to Ukraine. Georgescu accused NATO of diplomatic failure and believes that the alliance will not defend Romania. Following the elections, the country will hold a presidential run-off on December 8 and parliamentary elections on December 1. As voters in Romania focus on domestic political problems and economic woes, this process affects the country's strategic position within the European Union and NATO. However, experts believe that Romania will adhere to bloc discipline in foreign policy and that Georgescu's possible victory could only lead to partial changes in aid to Ukraine.
(Ведомости, “Неожиданный кандидат победил в первом туре выборов президента Румынии”, (26.11.2024))
Corruption Investigation Launched Against China's Minister of National Defence
Admiral Dong Jun, China's Minister of National Defense, has come under scrutiny as part of a corruption probe targeting the upper echelons of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). According to a report by the Financial Times citing American officials, Dong Jun, who was appointed to his position in December 2023, has become the third defense minister to be implicated in a sweeping corruption investigation within the PLA. Dong's predecessors, former Ministers of National Defense Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe, were also removed from office over corruption allegations. While Chinese authorities have not made any statements regarding the accusations against Dong, the developments signal an intensification of President Xi Jinping's efforts to combat corruption within the PLA.
(Ведомости, “FT: министр обороны Китая заподозрен в коррупции”, (27.11.2024))
Putin's Astana Speech
At the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) meeting in Astana and at the press conference afterwards, Russian President Vladimir Putin made statements on the new generation of Russian medium-range ballistic missile systems “Oreshnik”, the risk of Ukraine acquiring nuclear weapons and the leaders Angela Merkel and Trump. Putin stated that the serial production of the “Oreshnik” missile has started and that this system will be used for military and strategic targets in Ukraine. Stating that the power of the missile is comparable to nuclear weapons, Putin emphasised that Russia will use all its capabilities if Ukraine acquires nuclear weapons. Touching on economic issues, Putin stated that the situation is under control and there is no reason for panic in the face of the depreciation of the ruble. Putin's statements had a wide repercussion both on a regional and global scale.
(Ведомости, “О чем говорил Владимир Путин в Астане”, (28.11.2024))
Economic Cooperation Talks between Russia and Mali
On the instructions of President Vladimir Putin, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak discussed economic cooperation with Mali's Interim President Assimi Goita in Mali's capital Bamako. During the meeting, joint work in areas such as trade, energy, transport, infrastructure, agriculture and mining was discussed. Novak also met with Abdoulaye Maïga, Minister of Delegation to the Prime Minister of Mali, and members of the Malian government. This was the first official visit of a Russian deputy prime minister to Mali, and the delegation included representatives of the Russian business community. The Malian government has expressed its intention to start lithium mining and processing projects together with Russia, aiming to reach the necessary processing capacity for the production of electric batteries in the next 7-8 years. The talks are considered as an important step towards strengthening the economic and strategic partnership between the two countries.
North Korea Emphasises Loyalty to Russia
North Korean National Leader Kim Jong Un said that Pyongyang will always maintain its alliance and strategic partnership with Moscow during a meeting with Russian Defence Minister Andrey Belousov. According to the Korean Central News Agency, the two leaders exchanged views on defence cooperation, protection of sovereignty and promotion of security interests. Kim Jong Un accused the United States and the West of direct military intervention in the form of long-range weapons attacks on Russia through Ukraine and said that such “anti-Russian policies” should be condemned by the international community. Emphasising that they will support Russia's strategic interests, Kim stated that his government, military and people will continue this policy with determination. Belousov, who is in Pyongyang on an official visit, said the ratification of the strategic partnership agreement between the two countries demonstrated Moscow and Pyongyang's will to deepen their alliance relations.
(Ведомости, “Ким Чен Ын заявил Белоусову, что Северная Корея всегда будет с Россией”, (30.11.2024))