A significant analysis by the Haydar Aliyev Center for Eurasian Studies
Istanbul – April, 2025
The Haydar Aliyev Center for Eurasian Studies has released a comprehensive new report analyzing the shifts in spheres of influence in Kazakhstan following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022. Titled “Changes in the Spheres of Influence in Kazakhstan After the Outbreak of the Ukraine War in 2022,” the report is authored by Eldaniz Gusseinov. The publication process was managed by Ibn Haldun University Press.
The report examines the changing roles and influences of key external actors—Russia, China, Türkiye, and the European Union—within Kazakhstan, with a specific focus on economic dynamics. At the heart of the study lies the theory of the “negotiated hegemon,” which characterizes Russia as a dominant power in Kazakhstan, yet one whose influence is constrained by negotiations and balancing efforts from Kazakhstan itself.
According to the findings of the report, Russia has increased its political and military influence through the transit of dual-use goods across Kazakhstan.
The European Union stands out as the strongest actor in the economic domain.
While China's influence falls short of expectations, Türkiye is assessed as the weakest external actor in terms of influence, both before and after the war.
The report notes that Kazakhstan is actively seeking to counterbalance Russia’s growing presence through diversified global partnerships, while still maintaining trade relations with Russia under the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union.
This report provides crucial insights into the evolving geopolitical landscape of Central Asia and is expected to serve as a valuable resource for scholars, policymakers, and strategic analysts focusing on the region.
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