The Possibility of Europe Sending Troops to Ukraine
European Commission Vice President Kaja Kallas stated that it is possible for European countries to send troops to Ukraine. According to Italy's leading news agency Ansa, Kallas emphasized that European countries are evaluating the possibility of sending troops and that strategic uncertainty should be preserved in this regard. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur, in his statement on 26 November, drew attention to the importance of investing in Ukraine's defense industry and stated that the risks of sending foreign troops are greater than the benefits. These statements came after the French newspaper Le Monde reported that European countries were again discussing the issue of sending private military companies to Ukraine. It was reminded that French President Emmanuel Macron had stated in a previous statement that Europe should consider the possibility of sending troops in case of a request from Ukraine or a break in the front line.
(Ведомости, “Каллас допустила отправку европейских военных на Украину”, (01.12.2024))
Protests in Georgia and Medvedev's Statements
Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said that Georgia was heading down a similar path as Ukraine, into a “dark abyss” and that such processes usually end badly. Medvedev's statement came in the wake of protests in Georgia following the opposition's refusal to recognize the results of parliamentary elections and the government's decision to suspend accession negotiations to the European Union until 2028. Medvedev described the demonstrations as a “colour revolution” and drew attention to the risk of the country descending into internal conflict. He also criticized Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili's failure to resign despite the expiry of her term of office, stating that such behavior had led to severe consequences in the past. The protests, which started on 28 November, began when the European Parliament did not recognize the elections and called for sanctions. According to Visioner, about 200,000 people took part in the third night of protests on 1 December in the Georgian capital Tbilisi. The Georgian Interior Ministry announced that the demonstrations exceeded the legal framework and turned violent.
(Ведомости, “Медведев: Грузия быстро движется по украинскому пути”, (01.12.2024))
US Calls for De-escalation in Syria
US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller called on the countries in the region to use their influence to stop the clashes in northwest Syria, emphasizing the need to de-escalate tensions, protect civilians and implement a political settlement process in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2254. Stating that there is no change in the US policy on Syria, Miller said that the US aims to end the civil war in the country with a lasting political settlement and described the allegations that the US is behind the recent clashes as “baseless lies”. On the same day, Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov announced Russia's continued support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, while Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated their support for steps to restore Syria's territorial integrity in a telephone conversation. Since 27 November, “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham”, which is defined as a terrorist organization, and its allies have launched large-scale attacks and captured most of Aleppo and more than 50 settlements in the surrounding areas, according to Anadolu Agency. With the control of Maaret al-Numan on the strategically important M5 main road, these developments were recorded as the most serious conflict since the ceasefire reached in 2020 under the mediation of Turquie and Russia.
(Ведомости, “США призывают к деэскалации в Сирии”, (02.12.2024))
Cooperation Talks between Russia and Hungary
Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov met with Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó and discussed cooperation between the two countries. During the meeting, important issues such as railway wagon supply projects to Egypt and the construction of the “Paks-II” Nuclear Power Plant in Hungary were discussed. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said on 22 November that Western countries should take Russian President Vladimir Putin's ballistic missile statements seriously. Orbán emphasized that this was not a communication tactic. Furthermore, Hungarian Defense Minister Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky announced on 21 November that a new air defense system would be installed in the north-east of the country “as a precautionary measure” against Ukraine obtaining permission to attack Russian territory with long-range missiles. On 15 November, Orbán stated that the European Union should review its sanctions against Russia due to the rise in energy prices, arguing that only by changing these policies could prices fall.
(Ведомости, “Мантуров встретился с министром иностранных дел Венгрии”, (02.12.2024))
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law on the grounds of “protecting the country from threats from the north” with the increase in domestic political tensions. Yoon stated that this step was taken to protect the constitutional order and freedom of the country, while accusing the opposition Democratic Party of Korea of “supporting communist forces”. Under martial law, the military authorities were given wide powers, while restrictions were imposed on political activities, protests and media broadcasts, and the work of the parliament was physically suspended. Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, described the decision as “unconstitutional and anti-social”, while the ruling People Power Party criticized the move.
(Ведомости, “Президент Южной Кореи объявил военное положение”, (03.12.2024))
Coronavirus Accusation to China from the US Congress
The report, published because of a two-year investigation by the United States Congress, claimed that COVID-19 most likely leaked from a laboratory in Wuhan, China. The report stated that scientists and politicians increasingly support this laboratory accident theory and criticized the US government's inadequate crisis management during the pandemic. It was stated that the social distancing rule lacked scientific basis, the use of masks was ineffective, and widespread quarantine measures damaged the economy and caused serious problems in the mental health of the public. It was also emphasized that natural immunity was ignored, focusing only on vaccination. The Committee argued that from the early days of the pandemic, health authorities damaged public trust by excluding alternative views and state censorship of different points of view on social media. The report stated that official statements and media publications during the pandemic process should be questioned to a great extent.
(Ведомости, “Конгресс США обвинил Китай в распространении коронавируса”, (03.12.2024))
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that their return to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is becoming increasingly difficult or even impossible. Speaking in parliament, Pashinyan said that Armenia now considers itself outside the CSTO and therefore does not participate in the decisions and documents adopted within the organization, Sputnik Armenia reported. These statements followed Russian President Vladimir Putin's remarks on Armenia's relations with the CSTO. Putin stated that Armenia's current position was shaped by domestic political problems and the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis, that the country had not officially left the organization but had suspended its activities, and that despite this, it supported all documents adopted by the CSTO. Pashinyan, on the other hand, emphasized that the Nagorno-Karabakh issue has nothing to do with this attitude, stating that Armenia was subjected to aggression in 2021 and 2022 and that they tried to solve these problems primarily with their allies. Pashinyan, who announced in February that Armenia suspended its activities in the CSTO, stated that the organization poses a threat to the sovereignty of the country and that Armenia may consider leaving the organization completely if its members do not fulfil their obligations.
(Ведомости, “Пашинян: возвращение Армении в ОДКБ почти невозможно”, (04.12.2024))
Armenia and Azerbaijan Completed 90% of the Peace Agreement
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that the draft peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is 90% complete and the parties should take the final steps and sign the agreement. In his speech in the parliament, Pashinyan emphasised that the agreement is largely ready and stated that he does not see any reason for a new tension. Pashinyan also responded to questions on the issue of returning to the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and stated that Armenia now considers itself outside the CSTO and does not participate in the decisions and documents taken within the organisation, and therefore it is almost impossible to return.
(Ведомости, “Пашинян: Ереван и Баку согласовали 90% проекта мирного соглашения”, (04.12.2024))
Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov arrived in Doha, Qatar, on 7-8 December to participate in the Doha Forum. As part of the forum, Iran, Turkey and Russia, the guarantor countries of the Astana Format, are expected to hold a meeting to discuss the situation in Syria. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Irakci said that the foreign ministers of Iran, Turkey, Russia and Qatar are expected to meet in Doha, while the head of the Information and Press Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Mariya Zakharova, confirmed that preparations for the meeting are underway. Prior to his visit to Qatar, Lavrov attended the ‘Sir Bani Yas’ forum in the United Arab Emirates, where global political issues were discussed. Lavrov's visit to the Middle East comes at a time of escalating tensions in the region, with Israel continuing its operations against Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon, while large-scale military offensives have begun against Assad-held areas in Syria.
(Ведомости, “Лавров прибыл в Катар для участия в Дохийском форуме”, (05.12.2024))
Syrian Army Counterattack
The Syrian Armed Forces launched a counter-attack on the Free Syrian Army and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a designated terrorist organisation, from the outskirts of Hama city, pushing them back by 20 kilometres. According to Al Mayadeen, this operation took place after the militants came within 6 kilometres of the city. The contribution of Iranian-backed Shiite militias and the ‘Badr’ and ‘Nujaba’ operational units dispatched from Iraq played a critical role in the success of the government forces' counter-offensive, Reuters reported. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Irakchi said that Tehran would consider sending troops to Syria if Damascus requested it and was planning to visit Moscow to discuss the issue. At the same time, Iran's Chief of General Staff, Major General Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, in a telephone conversation with his Iraqi and Syrian counterparts, as well as with Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov, said that necessary steps would be taken to support the Syrian army. However, experts emphasise that the front line is still unstable and the Syrian army's advance depends on securing the front line. Moreover, it is foreseen that the increased Iranian military presence in the region will trigger Israeli air strikes and further escalate tensions in the region.
(Ведомости, “Сирийская армия контратакует джихадистов”, (05.12.2024))